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Investing.com - Samsung's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue could drop 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, according to Bernstein's analysis of export data from South Korea's Chungcheong Province, where Samsung packages HBM chips.
October exports from the region were 17% lower compared to July, suggesting a potential revenue decline that contradicts Bernstein's earlier growth predictions for Samsung's fourth quarter. The research firm notes that quarterly export patterns have historically strengthened in later months, with "increasingly backend-skewed" monthly seasonality potentially allowing Samsung to recover in November and December.
SK hynix appears to be tracking slightly ahead of expectations, with regression analysis predicting its Q4 HBM revenue could grow approximately 40% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding Bernstein's model by 10%. The firm suggests this may be attributed to delayed shipments from Q3 2025, when SK hynix HBM revenue was "surprisingly underwhelming."
Overall HBM momentum remains strong despite these company-specific variations, with October data showing a 43% year-over-year increase and 21% quarter-over-quarter growth. Bernstein's tracking of "value per weight" metrics showed no evidence of price improvements from next-generation HBM4 chips, though SK hynix has guided for initial HBM4 shipments to begin in Q4 2025.
The export data confirms Taiwan and, to a lesser extent, Malaysia remain the primary destinations for HBM shipments, with no evidence of exports to China or Hong Kong, according to Bernstein's analysis.
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