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Investing.com -- ARK Investment Management has placed a bold marker on Elon Musk-led SpaceX’s trajectory, projecting a $2.5 trillion enterprise value by 2030. According to the firm’s latest analysis, developed with aerospace research collective Mach33, this base-case valuation implies a compound annual return of 38% from the company’s December 2024 funding round at $350 billion.
The open-source model, published publicly on GitHub, leverages a Monte Carlo simulation using 17 independent variables and draws from SpaceX’s operational track record and long-term ambitions. ARK framed its $2.5 trillion call as the “expected” outcome, while a bear case values the company at $1.7 trillion and a bull case stretches to $3.1 trillion.
Central to ARK’s projection is the successful deployment and monetization of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet network, which it expects to generate $300 billion in annual revenue by the mid-2030s. The firm’s model assumes bandwidth growth to approximately 130 million gigabits per second, far exceeding current infrastructure, and priced significantly below U.S. averages.
SpaceX’s Starship platform also features prominently, with Wright’s Law predicting a 27% improvement in turnaround time for every cumulative doubling of the upmass to orbit. ARK anticipates that increasing rocket reusability will allow SpaceX to scale Starlink while redirecting future capital to Mars colonization efforts.
Though ARK’s valuation captures Mars-related initiatives, it tempers expectations about financial returns from extraplanetary ventures in the near term. “Given the scale and long-term goal of colonizing Mars, investors are unlikely to earn much of a return on capital for a significant period of time,” the firm noted in its report.
With its high-reward forecast, ARK acknowledges significant execution risk, from potential delays in Starship reusability to uncertain performance of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s Optimus robots and unforeseen geopolitical or market shocks. Forecasts, they caution, are “inherently limited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision.”
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