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Introduction & Market Context
Xponential Fitness Inc (NYSE:XPOF) released its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 8, revealing a complex performance picture that prompted a significant market reaction. The fitness franchise operator’s stock dropped 9.2% in aftermarket trading to $7.91, despite reporting strong system-wide sales growth, as investors responded to missed earnings expectations and year-over-year declines in key financial metrics.
The boutique fitness franchisor, which operates brands including Club Pilates, CycleBar, and YogaSix, continues to expand its studio footprint and membership base, but faces challenges in translating this growth into improved financial performance during what management described as a "stabilization year."
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Xponential Fitness reported North American system-wide sales of $467 million in Q1 2025, representing an impressive 18% year-over-year increase. This growth was supported by solid performance in other operational metrics.
As shown in the following chart of key operating metrics:
The company also reported strong membership growth and same-store sales performance:
Despite these positive operational indicators, Xponential’s financial results showed concerning trends. Revenue declined 4% year-over-year to $77 million, while Adjusted EBITDA fell 9% to $27 million, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 36%, down from 38% in the prior year period.
The following slide illustrates these financial metrics:
This financial performance resulted in a net loss of $2.7 million, or $0.10 per share, significantly missing analyst expectations of $0.16 earnings per share. The disconnect between growing system-wide sales and declining corporate revenue highlights challenges in the company’s revenue capture model, where Xponential receives approximately 7% in royalties and 2% in marketing fund revenue from franchisee sales.
Strategic Initiatives
Xponential has implemented leadership changes aimed at operational optimization, bringing in experienced executives across key functions. CEO Mark King emphasized the company’s focus on operational improvements during the earnings call, characterizing 2025 as a "stabilization year" and highlighting a strategic shift from a sales-focused organization to one prioritizing long-term sustainable growth.
The following slide showcases the strengthened leadership team:
The company continues its global expansion efforts, with international growth representing a key strategic priority. Xponential reported 3,298 global studios as of Q1 2025, a 7% increase year-over-year, along with 6,286 global licenses, up 4% from the previous year.
As illustrated in this global metrics slide:
Management indicated during the earnings call that the international expansion strategy emphasizes qualified master franchisees, suggesting a more selective approach to global growth compared to previous periods.
Forward-Looking Statements
Xponential Fitness provided guidance for fiscal year 2025 that projects continued system-wide sales growth despite relatively flat revenue expectations. The company forecasts North American system-wide sales between $1.935 billion and $1.955 billion, representing approximately 13-14% growth from 2024.
However, new studio openings are expected to slow significantly, with guidance for 160-180 global net new studio openings in 2025, compared to 239 in 2024. Revenue is projected to be between $315 million and $325 million, essentially flat compared to 2024’s $320 million.
The full guidance is detailed in the following slide:
Management expects same-store sales growth of 3-5% and projects Adjusted EBITDA to reach $120-$125 million, representing modest growth from $116 million in 2024. This guidance suggests the company anticipates operational efficiencies to improve profitability despite flat revenue projections.
Conclusion
Xponential Fitness’s Q1 2025 results present a mixed picture for investors. While operational metrics like system-wide sales, membership growth, and same-store sales show positive momentum, the company faces challenges in converting this growth into improved financial performance at the corporate level.
The significant stock decline following the earnings release indicates investor concern about the company’s profitability trajectory and the missed earnings expectations. Management’s framing of 2025 as a "stabilization year" suggests acknowledgment of these challenges, with a strategic pivot toward operational optimization rather than aggressive expansion.
As Xponential navigates this transition period, investors will likely focus on whether the company can successfully translate its growing system-wide sales and membership base into improved revenue and profitability in upcoming quarters, particularly as it approaches the upper bounds of its projected studio count for the year.
Full presentation:
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