Allegro lifts 2025 earnings outlook after Q2 beat, but faces InPost arbitration

Investing.com -- Allegro.eu SA on Thursday raised its 2025 revenue and profit guidance after reporting second-quarter results that came in slightly ahead of expectations, while disclosing arbitration proceedings with logistics partner InPost over a PLN 98.7 million claim. 

The Polish e-commerce group now expects group gross merchandise value (GMV) to rise 9-10% this year, compared with its earlier 8-11% forecast. 

Revenue is projected to grow 8-11%, versus 7-11% previously, and adjusted EBITDA is seen at 13-17%, narrowed from 10-17%. In Poland, Allegro guided GMV growth of 10%, revenue of 16-18% and adjusted EBITDA of 10-12%.

Second-quarter GMV grew 9% year-on-year, with Polish GMV up 9.8% and international GMV down 7.7%. Group revenue rose 10% and adjusted EBITDA increased 20%, both exceeding consensus forecasts by 1-6%. 

Barclays said the company traded “broadly in line with expectations in Q2 and Q3 to date, ’25 guidance nudged fractionally higher.”

Allegro flagged gains in delivery operations, with 34% of parcel volume managed through its own network in the second quarter, up 5 percentage points from the prior period. 

Its Allegro One automated parcel machine (APM) network reached 6,000 locations by June and is targeted to expand beyond 8,000 by the end of 2025, up from 7,000 previously. 

Partners include Orlen Packza and DHL, with DPD integration expected by October. Barclays noted the company “managed volume share continues to increase, up to 34% in Q2, and is expected to increase further.”

Current trading has strengthened, with group GMV up about 10% year-on-year in the third quarter to date. International GMV, which fell in the second quarter, is forecast to return to mid-single-digit growth in the third. Morgan Stanley said, “Q3 (SeqQ) has also begun well GMV is +10% YoY in Q3 (to date).”

The company also disclosed that InPost has initiated arbitration before the Court of Arbitration at the Polish Chamber of Commerce in Warsaw, seeking PLN 98.7 million as a contractual penalty tied to a 2020 logistics agreement. 

InPost alleges Allegro breached obligations related to delivery method sorting and visibility of its services. 

Allegro said in its filing that it considers the claim unfounded and has not made any provisions, adding that the matter will be settled by a panel of three arbitrators.

Separately, Poland’s competition regulator OCCP has opened proceedings into Allegro’s “Ecoclaims” in Allegro One marketing, with potential penalties of up to 10% of turnover. Allegro said the case is not expected to have a material impact on financial results.

Barclays maintained an “equal weight” rating on Allegro with a PLN 30 price target, citing 20x 2025 earnings multiples falling to 15x in 2026. 

Morgan Stanley reiterated an “overweight” rating with a PLN 40 target, noting Allegro’s “robust set of results” and strengthening logistics control.