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Investing.com -- Wolfe Research says the crypto market is at a moment of maximum disagreement, and potentially maximum opportunity.
Analysts Rob Ginsberg and Read Harvey wrote in a note Thursday that sentiment is “at an all-time divide,” with half of market participants convinced the bear market is only beginning while others believe “the bottom is in on every bounce.”
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Wolfe places itself “somewhere in the middle,” but argues investors may be approaching a favourable entry point.
The firm reiterates its call for Bitcoin to bottom around $75,000, saying “that remains intact in our view.”
And while BTC has rebounded “back above $90k,” Wolfe cautions that buying fervor has not reemerged, pointing to continued weakness in crypto ETF flows and broad declines across digital assets.
According to the analysts, “every coin we track remains down 20–50% over the past 3 months.”
Still, Wolfe highlights one encouraging signal. On a relative basis to equities, crypto has traded in a “predictable range over the past 2 years,” and each major drawdown has found support at the same level, an area that marked past turning points.
“We are back at that level,” the firm writes. “So, crypto bulls, the floor is yours.”
Near-term momentum is also improving. Wolfe notes that daily MACD indicators show strength building across the space, though it remains unclear “if it is the start of legitimate improvement or just short-lived.”
Bitcoin’s recent bounce is viewed as particularly constructive, with “momentum [turning] positive again” as the token reclaimed $90,000.
The analysts say the “real first test” will be the 50-day moving average at $101,000, with the more meaningful psychological level for investors likely to be $100,000.