Pepco shares fall over 6% after Poundland profit forecast cut

Published 22/05/2025, 10:20

Investing.com -- Shares in Pepco Group (WA:PCOP) dropped more than 6% on Thursday after the company cut its full-year profit guidance for Poundland by up to €50 million, citing weak sales and operational challenges in the UK.

Pepco now expects Poundland’s underlying full-year EBITDA to be between €0 and €20 million, down from previous guidance of €50 million to €70 million provided in March. The downgrade follows continued weakness in sales and profitability.

Like-for-like sales at Poundland fell 7.3% in both the first and second quarters. EBITDA for the first half dropped to €22 million from €87 million a year earlier. 

Gross margin contracted by 430 basis points to 34.5%, affected by a stock clearance program, adverse mix, and lower volume-related rebates.

The group recorded a non-cash impairment charge of €234 million, primarily related to goodwill and brand assets, reflecting the ongoing deterioration in trading and a weaker profit outlook.

Group EBITDA on an IFRS 16 basis declined 5.9% year-over-year to €460 million. On an IAS 17 basis, EBITDA fell 15.5% to €235 million. Underlying profit before tax decreased 31.3% to €117 million.

Group like-for-like sales declined 0.2% in the second quarter, following a 1.1% fall in the first. Total (EPA:TTEF) group sales rose 4.3% to €3.34 billion for the six months ended March 2025. Free cash flow was an outflow of €7 million, similar to the prior year. Net debt, excluding leases, dropped to €279 million from €429 million.

The PEPCO banner reported stronger results, with second-quarter like-for-like sales rising 3.6%, up from 1.4% in the first. EBITDA increased to €440 million, with a margin of 20.3%, compared to 19.9% a year earlier. Gross margin rose 180 basis points to 47.3%, supported by a one-off 50 basis point gain from a tax reclassification.

Western Europe led PEPCO’s growth, with constant currency revenue up 25.2% and like-for-like sales rising 10.0%. 

Central and Eastern Europe also contributed positively, while Poland remained weak with like-for-like sales down 3.1% in the first half.

General merchandise posted a 5.2% like-for-like increase, while clothing declined 0.3%. Operating costs rose 15.8% year-over-year, largely due to inflation in store wages.

Dealz reported mixed results, with second-quarter like-for-like sales falling 1.7% after a 6.6% increase in the first. 

First-half revenue rose 14% to €182 million. EBITDA reached €15 million, with an 8.2% margin. Gross margin rose 150 basis points to 33.7%, helped by favorable buying terms and currency effects.

All 28 net new Dealz stores in the past year were in Poland. Like-for-like sales rose 2.0% in general merchandise and 3.6% in FMCG.

Group gross margin rose 20 basis points to 43.3%. The company maintained its full-year guidance for PEPCO, expecting high single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth. No new information was provided on a potential Poundland sale.

Barclays (LON:BARC) said PEPCO and Dealz trading remained strong into the third quarter, with PEPCO tracking ahead of its 3.6% second-quarter like-for-like growth.

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