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Investing.com -- ProSiebenSat.1 shares rose 2% on Thursday after the German media group reported third-quarter results that were in line with forecasts and narrowed its full-year profit guidance, while maintaining expectations for a mid-single-digit decline in 2025 advertising revenue in the DACH region.
Kepler Cheuvreux said Q3 results were “bang-in-line with our forecasts, which had been lowered into the print.”
The company now expects a mid-single-digit decline in advertising revenues (NAR) in the DACH region for FY 2025, consistent with Kepler Cheuvreux’s forecast of 4.5% decline, implying a low-single-digit decline in Q4 2025, where the forecast stands at 4.1% decline.
The guided range for FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA has been narrowed downwards from €420-470 million to €420-450 million, on group revenues of €3.65-3.8 billion.
Kepler Cheuvreux’s forecast of €438 million remains consistent with this guidance. The brokerage said there is no analyst call and that it expects a neutral share price reaction.
In Entertainment, advertising video-on-demand revenues on Joyn grew 42% year on year, slower than the 62% increase in the second quarter, but ahead of the 36% rise in full-year 2024 and 39% in the first quarter of 2025.
For overall net advertising revenue, spending in the German TV market weakened significantly in several sectors in the third quarter.
Telecommunications fell 11% compared with a 2% increase over the first nine months, beverages declined 35% compared with a 5% decrease over the same period, and tourism dropped 20% after a 1% gain over the first nine months.
Commerce & Ventures grew by 2% year on year through the first nine months, despite the sale of Verivox, and by 16% on a like-for-like basis.
Flaconi grew 28% through nine months compared with 33% in Q2, and AroundHome rose 15%.
Between 2018 and 2025, ProSiebenSat.1’s advertising revenues in the DACH region have declined by a cumulative 20%, indicating structural pressure on free-to-air television due to declining audiences and steady audience share loss to rival RTL Group.
Kepler Cheuvreux noted that cross-border synergies in free-to-air TV are limited, as programming costs are mainly local-language.
Streaming ad revenues remain significantly in the minority, 20% or less, compared with linear, which it described as “demographically challenged.”
Kepler Cheuvreux said the outlook over German TV advertising remains uncertain for 2026. Disposal of non-core Commerce & Ventures activities such as Dating and Flaconi is described as “complicated,” and “return to growth in Dating business [is] unlikely short-term.”