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Investing.com -- Roche Holding AG (SIX:RO) shares fell more than 2% on Thursday after the Swiss pharmaceutical group reported third-quarter sales that missed analyst expectations by 2%, with several key growth drugs underperforming and a raised full-year outlook already matching consensus forecasts.
Group sales reached CHF14.92 billion, compared with the CHF15.17 billion expected. Pharmaceutical sales were CHF11.57 billion, about 2% below forecasts, while Diagnostics came broadly in line at CHF3.35 billion.
“3Q Sales -2% v cons, with Pharma -2%, Diagnostics in-line,” Jefferies said in a note. Roche’s shares last closed at CHF280.50, with Jefferies maintaining a “hold” rating and a price target of CHF270.
Among Roche’s major drugs, Hemlibra sales were 5% below consensus, Ocrevus missed by 3%, and Vabysmo was 11% under expectations.
Jefferies noted that “focus drugs Phesgo, slightly ahead, Hemlibra miss (-5%), Vabysmo miss (-11%), Ocrevus miss (-3%). Legacy products offset but hence not great quality.”
Older treatments such as Rituxan and Actemra outperformed, up 12% and 4% against estimates, respectively, partially offsetting the shortfall from newer medicines.
Roche lifted its full-year sales guidance to a range of CHF61 billion to CHF63 billion at constant exchange rates, compared with Visible Alpha’s consensus of CHF61.8 billion.
“Outlook raised but consensus there, EPS guide may disappoint,” Jefferies said. The brokerage estimated mid–single-digit growth at constant exchange rates, implying group sales between CHF61.21 billion and CHF62.93 billion, based on Roche’s own currency impact assumptions.
The company forecast diluted core earnings per share to grow in the high-single- to low-double-digit range at constant exchange rates, up from its prior guidance of high-single-digit growth.
Jefferies calculated an EPS range of CHF19.21 to CHF19.92, assuming an 8% foreign exchange impact, against consensus expectations of CHF19.89.
“Earnings outlook is high-single-digit to low double-digit CER (from high-single-digit), leaving cons CHF19.89 when using the company’s FX guide of -8% impact right at the top of the guidance range,” the brokerage said.