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Investing.com-- Persistent deflationary pressures in China’s economy could prompt further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) later this year, according to ING economists.
Despite a recent monetary easing package, May data showed consumer prices remained in negative territory for a fourth straight month, with the consumer price index declining at 0.1% year-on-year, while producer prices fell 3.3%, marking the biggest contraction in 22 months.
"We’ll need to watch the next few months of data to see if the easing helps push the CPI back into positive territory. It’s hard to envision a significant uptick, though, as domestic consumer sentiment remains soft and tariffs could cause further deflationary pressure," ING analysts wrote.
ING noted that while the PBOC may wait to assess the impact of recent stimulus, another 10-20 basis point rate cut in the fourth quarter is likely if deflation persists.
Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, dragged heavily on inflation, offsetting modest gains in pork and non-food categories.
Weak domestic demand and global trade headwinds, including a 34.5% YoY plunge in exports to the U.S., added to deflation risks, though robust shipments to ASEAN and the EU cushioned overall trade growth at 4.8%.