UK retail sales surge in April, but Capital Economics remains cautious on outlook

Published 23/05/2025, 07:40
UK retail sales surge in April, but Capital Economics remains cautious on outlook

Investing.com -- On Friday, UK retail sales volumes saw an unexpected surge in April, registering a 1.2% month-on-month increase, significantly surpassing consensus forecasts of a 0.3% rise and even Capital Economics’ own prediction of a 0.5% hike.

This marked the fourth consecutive month of growth, a streak not seen since 2015 if one excludes the pandemic period.

The 3-month on 3-month growth rate accelerated from 1.4% in March to 1.8% in April, the fastest since July 2021.

The remarkable April figures were buoyed by the third warmest April on record, which boosted high-street footfall and outdoor goods purchases.

Household goods and department stores enjoyed increases of 2.1% and 2.8% month-on-month, respectively, with retailers attributing this growth to the favorable weather conditions.

Additionally, food sales climbed by 3.9% month-on-month as households seemed to overlook the rising food and utilities Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in April.

Despite the uptick in consumer confidence, which improved slightly from -23 in April to -20 in May, Capital Economics warns that this is still indicative of a potential slump in the annual growth rate of retail sales volumes, possibly approaching 0.0% in May.

The boost from the warm weather is not expected to be a lasting factor for the retail sector’s performance.

Looking beyond the immediate future, Capital Economics forecasts that real wages will grow by over 2.0% this year.

Furthermore, they anticipate that overall consumer spending growth will pick up from 0.6% in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025, eventually reaching 2.0% in 2026.

This projection suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the UK retail sector in the medium term.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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