US stock futures steady after Wall St gains on rate cut bets; PPI inflation on tap
Bank of America (BofA) economists suggested that the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) may not need to raise interest rates as aggressively as previously anticipated. This assessment comes in light of two consecutive months of negative activity indicators, which continue to underscore the ongoing economic slowdown in Brazil.
BofA points to a non-expansionary fiscal policy expected in the second half of 2024 and a monetary policy that has been contractionary for over two years as key factors contributing to the deceleration.
According to BofA, this economic backdrop could lead the BCB to implement fewer rate hikes than the market has been expecting in recent months. The analysts anticipate that the BCB will follow the guidance it provided in December and enact a 100 basis points increase in interest rates at the next meeting.
This would be followed by two additional hikes of 50 basis points each, potentially bringing the Selic rate to 15.25%, although BofA also sees risks that the hikes could be smaller.
BofA's forecast for Brazil's GDP growth stands at 3% for 2024, which is below the consensus estimate. For the current year, the firm's projection aligns with the consensus, anticipating a 2% growth rate.
These projections reflect a cautious stance on Brazil's economic outlook, suggesting that the BCB may have room to maneuver with a less aggressive approach to tightening monetary policy.
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