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Investing.com - China’s government will likely need to roll out more stimulus measures to help meet its 5% economic growth target this year, according to analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC).
A recent truce cooling a tit-for-tat trade spat with the United States has helped to somewhat ease the threat of headwinds to the Chinese economy from the levies.
Data last week showed that China grew by 5.2% in the second quarter, with exports -- a crucial portion of overall activity -- displaying resilience to elevated tariff pressures. The rate was slower than expansion of 5.4% in the prior quarter, but above economists’ projections.
However, the tariffs have clouded over the wider economic picture, exacerbating persistent concerns among analysts over tepid domestic consumer demand and a protracted real estate sector crisis.
Beijing, which has set an ambitious goal of 5% annualized growth in 2025, has aimed to counteract these trends by providing policy support. But given the murky outlook, some analysts are anticipating that more stimulus could be coming at an upcoming Politburo meeting set for late July which could determine economic policy for the rest of the year.
In a note to clients, the Barclays strategists said further support would help to "put a floor" to growth in the world’s second largest economy.
"[W]e believe growth momentum will slow down given the worsening property indicators and payback in exports, while forecasting consumption to moderate yet remain resilient," the brokerage wrote.
Yet with growth in the first half largely stronger than expected, the Barclays analysts do not anticipate any new stimulus will be unveiled at the Politburo gathering. Instead, fresh fiscal stimulus will likely emerge "around or after" a high level meeting of the standing committee China’s National People’s Congress, potentially in September or October, they predicted.
Against this backdrop, Barclays advised investors to have "selective exposure to China." They specifically noted that their basket of European stocks exposed to China has underperformed the pan-regional Stoxx 600 index so far this year, and "thus is likely to benefit the most in case of good news" around the Chinese economy. Some of these stocks include luxury group Kering (EPA:PRTP); timepiece maker Swatch; German car firms Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p), Porsche, and BMW (ETR:BMWG); brewer Carlsberg (CSE:CARLb); and semiconductor names like ASML (AS:ASML), STMicro, and Infineon (OTC:IFNNY).