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Investing.com - Erste bank has maintained its forecast for Romania’s National Bank (NBR) to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% until February 2026, following the central bank’s decision on July 8 to hold rates steady.
The bank projects a total of 150 basis points in rate cuts throughout 2026, according to its latest analysis of NBR monetary policy. Erste noted the central bank’s press release showed "some sense of relief" after the Romanian government approved a fiscal consolidation package.
NBR officials expect inflation to increase "considerably in the following months" due to the expiration of electricity price caps and tax changes taking effect August 1, including VAT rate and excise duty increases. These factors will push inflation "well above" previous May 2025 forecasts in the short term.
The central bank indicated the fiscal package would likely create "stronger underlying disinflationary pressures over the longer horizon" by affecting aggregate demand, while supporting "a relatively swift and hefty correction of the current account deficit" with positive implications for financing costs and the Romanian leu’s exchange rate.
Erste forecasts Romania’s headline inflation to reach 7.5% by year-end, based on assumptions of a moderate 30% increase in electricity prices in July, 60% pass-through from VAT increases, and complete pass-through of higher excise duties, with core inflation projected at 6.0% year-over-year by the end of 2025.
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