Gold prices dip as December rate cut bets wane; Fed, econ. data in focus
Investing.com - Artificial intelligence-darling Nvidia’s earnings are set to highlight this week’s corporate earnings slate, while retail titan Walmart is also expected to report. With a prolonged federal government shutdown now over, investors are preparing for the release of a fresh raft of official U.S. economic data. The numbers will likely be closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, who will also unveil minutes from its October monetary policy meeting.
1. Nvidia earnings loom large
Headlining the earnings agenda this week will be much-anticipated quarterly returns from Nvidia, the semiconductor giant whose meteoric rise in recent years has made it a poster child of the artificial intelligence boom.
The results, scheduled to be unveiled after the close of markets on Wednesday, may be of even more importance to investors than the more-dated U.S. labor market report.
Nvidia’s stock price has soared by roughly 1,000% since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, making the company the first to surpass $5 trillion in market value and granting its earnings a certain bellwether status that can sway much of a recently fretful mood around AI.
Given frothy stock valuations and a string of circular deals in the tech industry, many of which revolve around Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips, some observers have increasingly worried over the possibility that a bubble may be forming around the AI craze.
"[T[he rising tide of AI skepticism is occurring for (largely) legitimate reasons, and this will remain an overhang for tech, even if the Nvidia results/guidance are great," analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote in a note. "In fact, ’great Nvidia results’ is ironically part of the problem as the company’s success is becoming mutually exclusive with the health of the overall AI ecosystem."
On average, analysts are anticipating Nvidia will post a 53.8% jump in fiscal third-quarter profit per share and revenue of $54.8 billion, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
2. Walmart to report
Apart from Nvidia, a series of home improvement and big box retailers are set to report this week -- and offer potential insights into the outlook for the crucial holiday shopping season.
Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are all among these firms due to release their latest earnings.
For Walmart, the returns will come after the retail titan said CEO Doug McMillon will retire next year after a more than a decade in charge of the company.
McMillon’s departure, which was announced sooner than previously anticipated, follows a period during which he has transformed Walmart into a technology-focused group whose share price is known for outperforming many of its peers. Since taking the job in 2014, McMillon has overseen a tripling in Walmart’s value to $817 billion, underpinned by a longstanding effort to battle Amazon in e-commerce sales.
Other retail firms have announced leadership shake-ups this year, as the sector attempts to navigate changes brought by advances in AI, sweeping U.S. tariffs, and uneven consumer spending.
3. U.S. data tap reopens
Attention is also turning to the economic calendar, which has been largely devoid of fresh official U.S. data for weeks during a more than 40-day federal government shutdown.
That temporary closure came to an end last week, paving the way for new figures on employment and inflation from the world’s largest economy to be released.
One of the big publications in the days ahead will be September’s U.S. jobs report, due out on Thursday, although comments from the White House have appeared to suggest that October data could, at least, be truncated.
According to estimates cited by ING, U.S. payrolls are tipped to have increased by 50,000 in September and the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 4.3%.
"With the federal government reopened, the task now is to assess the economic damage caused by the record-length six-week shutdown," said Thomas Ryan, North America Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.
4. FOMC minutes ahead
Crucially, these numbers are likely to figure into how the Federal Reserve approaches its final interest rate decision of the year in December.
The Fed slashed rates at its previous two gatherings, but concerns that the central bank is effectively flying blind without up-to-date economic readings have led to bets that policymakers will keep borrowing costs steady next month.
These wagers could be further impacted on Wednesday, when minutes from the Fed’s October meeting are scheduled to be published.
"Remember that was the meeting where Chair Jerome Powell went out of his way to outline that another rate cut in December was far from a foregone conclusion and that there were ’strongly differing’ views amongst the Fed," analysts at ING including Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole said in a note.
5. Japan’s GDP contracts
Japan’s economy shrank in the third quarter of 2025, gross domestic product data showed on Monday, weighed down by a tariff-fueled drop in exports, especially from the country’s all-important automotive industry.
GDP contracted 1.8% year-on-year in the September quarter, less than expectations for a drop of 2.5%. But growth turned negative from a 2.3% increase in the prior quarter, which was also revised higher.
It was the first time in six quarters that Japan’s economy shrank, although economists suggested that, because it was not as deep as initially anticipated, this could prove to be a momentary hurdle.
Analysts at Capital Economics said the GDP data indicated that the Bank of Japan was likely to keep interest rates unchanged in December. Moreover, Japanese inflation is expected to continue remaining sticky, giving the central bank impetus to hike rates eventually. Capital Economics still sees a chance the BOJ will tighten policy in January.