Investing.com -- Donald Trump's immigration policies could spark a "meaningful" deceleration in the pace of migration into the US that would weigh on the country's growth next year, according to analysts at Piper Sandler.
On the campaign trail, Trump has made immigration a centerpiece of his message to supporters. He has frequently discussed a range of policy actions, including a move to prevent federal agencies from granting automatic citizenship to children of those who have unlawfully entered the country.
Meanwhile, Trump has promised to restore his 2019 "remain in Mexico" law, which compelled asylum-seekers of some nationalities trying to cross the US southern border to wait in Mexico until their passage is cleared. Current US President Joe Biden has since ended the program.
At a rally on Oct. 13, Trump said he would ask Congress to fund an additional 10,000 Border Patrol agents, greatly expanding the existing force. Kamala Harris, Trump's Democratic rival for president, has suggested he used his influence to kill a bipartisan border bill earlier this year which had called for 1,300 more agents.
Trump has said he would attempt to detain all migrants caught crossing the border illegally or violating other immigration laws, bringing an end to what he has dubbed "catch and release."
He has also raised the possibility of using the National Guard and local law enforcement to locate and deport illegal migrants, adding that he would be willing to utilize federal troops in the process as well -- a step that would likely be challenged in the courts. Speaking to the New York Times, Trump's running mate, JD (NASDAQ:JD) Vance, said deporting 1 million immigrants per year would be "reasonable."
Although the Piper Sandler analysts said they were "skeptical" that Trump would be successful in deporting millions of immigrants due to "legal, compliance and funding reasons," they believe his plans could plausibly slow net migration to the US by about two million people.
By the analysts' estimates, Trump's immigration policies could subsequently subtract between 10 basis points to 40 basis points in read gross domestic product growth in 2025.
According to the US Customs and Border Patrol Agency, illegal border crossings have slowed this year, putting them on pace to fall to 1.1 million from 1.7 million in 2023. Using these figures and data from the Congressional Budget Office, the analysts projected that overall net migration would come in at 2.4 million in 2024 -- down from the CBO's estimate of 3.3 million last year.
(Reuters contributed reporting.)