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Opinion polls in Germany are consistently indicating that a coalition involving the centre-right CDU/CSU is highly probable.
The UBS Evidence Lab Political Probability Monitor projects a 96% likelihood that the CDU/CSU will secure the majority of seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Additionally, there is a 93% chance that CDU leader Friedrich Merz could be appointed as the next Chancellor of Germany.
Despite these forecasts, there is speculation among clients about the potential underestimation of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party’s vote share. This concern arises especially after the recent parliamentary vote on the CDU’s immigration bill.
If the AfD, together with the far-left BSW, were to gain over one-third of the parliamentary seats, they could block constitutional changes. Current polls suggest that both parties combined might hold 29.5% of seats, which is below the threshold required to obstruct constitutional amendments but indicates a significant presence in parliament.
The BSW’s leader, Sarah Wagenknecht, has confirmed her opposition to any changes in the constitution that would allow for increased debt to fund higher defense spending. The distribution of seats in the German parliament could also be influenced by the success of smaller parties. According to the German electoral system, a party can enter parliament by winning at least three direct mandates, even if its overall vote share is less than 5%.
The political landscape in Germany is closely watched as the election outcomes could have substantial implications for the country’s policies and role in the European Union. The possibility of a stronger AfD presence poses questions about the future direction of Germany’s legislative agenda, particularly concerning immigration and defense spending.
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