Asia FX muted, dollar whipsaws as rate cut bets build ahead of CPI data

Published 11/09/2025, 04:42

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies weakened slightly on Thursday, while the dollar steadied from a whipsaw session amid growing bets on lower U.S. interest rates ahead of key consumer inflation data due later in the day.

The Japanese yen was muted after a mixed producer price index inflation reading, which showed prices remaining sticky but falling slightly in August from the prior month. 

Regional currencies were sitting on some overnight gains after softer-than-expected U.S. PPI inflation data furthered bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates when it meets next week.

But caution ahead of Wednesday’s consumer price index reading quashed overall gains, while also spurring sharp swings in the dollar. 

Japanese yen muted after mixed PPI data 

The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair steadied at 147.46 yen on Thursday, showing limited reaction to the mixed PPI print.

Government data showed PPI inflation fell 0.2% month-on-month in August, slightly more than expectations for a drop of 0.1%. But year-on-year PPI grew slightly to 2.7%. 

The print showed wholesale inflation in Japan remained relatively sticky– a trend that could spill over into CPI inflation, data on which is due next week.

Sticky inflation gives the Bank of Japan more impetus to hike interest rates. But bets on such a scenario were battered this week following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s unexpected resignation, which portends more political upheaval in Japan. 

Dollar nurses some losses, Asia FX muted ahead of CPI data 

The dollar index and dollar index futures moved little in Asian trade, steadying from a whipsaw overnight session.

The greenback had initially fallen sharply in response to Wednesday’s soft PPI data. But it had then recouped most of its losses, with focus squarely on Thursday’s CPI data.

The CPI print is due at 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT), and is expected to show headline inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.7% annually in August. 

Core CPI is seen remaining at 3.1% annually. 

Focus will be squarely on whether President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs– a bulk of which took effect in August– factored into higher inflation. The Fed has repeatedly flagged uncertainty over the inflation effects of Trump’s tariffs, with the August CPI data expected to offer more cues on this front. 

The dollar was nursing some losses from last week following substantially weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, which ratcheted up bets on a September rate cut by the Fed.

Markets are pricing in a 93.7% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its Sept 16-17 meeting, and a 6.3% chance for a 50 bps cut, CME Fedwatch showed. 

Asian currencies took some support from speculation over lower U.S. interest rates. But overall gains were limited as markets also fretted over weaker Chinese inflation and signs of a cooling U.S. economy. 

The Chinese yuan’s USD/CNY pair was flat after rising from a 10-month low in the prior session, as softer-than-expected inflation data weighed on the currency.

The Singapore dollar’s USD/SGD pair rose 0.1%, while the South Korean won’s USD/KRW pair was flat.

The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair fell 0.2% after racing to a 10-month high this week. 

The Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair rose 0.1% and remained close to record highs, as speculation over tougher U.S. trade tariffs weighed on Indian markets. 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.