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Investing.com - Bank of America reports that U.S. markets are currently lightly positioned, with USD FX exposure returning to neutral for the first time since the first quarter and duration exposure only modestly underweight.
The bank suggests this positioning shift may reflect both risk constraints approaching year-end and the recent absence of US economic data, potentially setting the stage for increased market volatility as new economic information becomes available.
BofA highlights that the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs represents a significant risk factor, with most market participants expecting the fiscal channel to dominate market impact if the use of IEEPA is struck down, potentially leading to lower equities, higher interest rates, and a weaker US dollar.
Federal Reserve independence risks continue to be viewed as underpriced by survey respondents, though they are perceived as better priced than in the previous month’s survey, according to the bank’s research.
BofA notes that should Fed independence concerns materialize, market participants anticipate steeper interest rates or a softer US dollar, with finely balanced pricing for the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting potentially contributing to market sensitivity.
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