FOREX-Dollar hovers near one-month low amid subdued U.S. debt yields

Published 19/04/2021, 06:54
© Reuters.
US500
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US10YT=X
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* Stocks at record highs sap demand for safest assets
* Bitcoin trades near $57,000 after weekend plunge
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Kevin Buckland
TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - The dollar was pinned near a
one-month low to major peers on Monday, with Treasury yields
hovering near the lowest in five weeks, after the U.S. Federal
Reserve reiterated its view that any spike in inflation was
likely to be temporary.
The safe-haven greenback was also held down by improved risk
sentiment amid a rally in global stocks to record highs.
Bitcoin BTC=BTSP nursed losses from Sunday, when it
plunged by as much as 14% to $51,541. It last traded around
$57,020.
The dollar index =USD , which tracks the currency against
six rivals, was at 91.623, not far from the low of 91.484 marked
last week, a level not seen since March 18.
The greenback bought 108.655 yen JPY=EBS , near the lowest
since March 24.
The euro changed hands at $1.1958 EUR=EBS , near the
highest since March 4.
"The fixed-income market will dominate my world this week,"
with the risk currently skewed to further U.S. yield declines,
pressuring the dollar, Chris Weston, head of research at
Pepperstone Markets Ltd, a foreign exchange broker based in
Melbourne, wrote in a client note.
Wall Street's gains amid low volatility "should keep USD
rallies contained and attract further USD sellers," he wrote.
Benchmark 10-year yields US10YT=RR could fall to as low as
1.47%, from around 1.57% currently, according to Weston.
Key technical points are 91.30, the March 18 low, for the
dollar index, and $1.2000 for the euro, which could trigger a
run to $1.22, he said.
The 10-year Treasury yield sank to as low as 1.5280% last
week, from a more-than-one-year high of 1.7760% at the end of
last month, reducing the dollar's appeal.
The S&P 500 .SPX closed at a record high on Friday,
extending a rally in global stocks. MSCI's broadest gauge of
world stocks .MIWD00000PUS held on Monday near Friday's
all-time peak.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on CNBC on Friday that
the U.S. economy "is ready to rip" as vaccinations continue and
activity picks up, but a rise in inflation is likely to be
transitory, echoing comments from other Fed officials including
Chair Jerome Powell over the past week. Dollar net short positioning fell in the latest week to the
lowest level since June 2018, according to calculations by
Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released
on Friday. The chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo,
Masafumi Yamamoto, sees the current quarter as a period of
consolidation in U.S. yields and the dollar, with the benchmark
Treasury yield potentially dropping below 1.5% and the dollar
weakening below 108 yen.
The outline of President Joe Biden's infrastructure spending
plan has already been priced in, and there will be limited
progress in negotiations in the near term, Yamamoto said.
But the uptrend in U.S. yields and the dollar will resume in
the third quarter, when Congress is likely to approve the plan,
the U.S. vaccine rollout will be far along and market
speculation about a tapering of Fed stimulus will be mounting,
he said.
Bitcoin on Monday remained well below the record high of
$64,895.22 reached on April 14 following its weekend plunge.
Data website CoinMarketCap cited a blackout in China's
Xinjiang region, which reportedly powers a lot of bitcoin
mining, for Sunday's selloff. Analysts at National Australia Bank cited "speculation in
several online reports" that the U.S. Treasury may crack down on
money laundering within digital currencies for the sharp move
lower.
The bitcoin rout also followed a decision on Friday by
Turkey's central bank to ban the use of cryptocurrencies for
purchases. Despite recent weakness, the world's most popular
cryptocurrency remains up 97% in 2021, after more than
quadrupling last year.
Mizuho's Yamamoto also pointed to regulatory concerns as the
likely trigger for the weekend selloff, but doesn't expect those
jitters to scupper the rally longer term.
"I would say the bigger trend for bitcoin has been the
increased use by big financial institutions and corporates like
Tesla," he said. "I think a new record high is reachable in the
coming weeks."
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 521 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.1959 $1.1983 -0.20% -2.12% +1.1978 +1.1943
Dollar/Yen JPY=EBS 108.6550 108.8100 -0.13% +5.20% +108.8200 +108.5900
Euro/Yen S>
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9208 0.9201 +0.10% +4.10% +0.9215 +0.9205
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.3855 1.3850 +0.03% +1.40% +1.3857 +1.3811
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2506 1.2510 -0.01% -1.77% +1.2527 +1.2505
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.7731 0.7734 -0.03% +0.51% +0.7737 +0.7706
NZ NZD=D3 0.7140 0.7148 -0.10% -0.57% +0.7143 +0.7117
Dollar/Dollar


All spots FX=
Tokyo spots AFX=
Europe spots EFX=
Volatilities FXVOL=
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ TKYFX

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World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
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(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Jacqueline Wong)

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