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FOREX-Dollar surrenders to euro and yen as rate supremacy evaporates

Published 06/03/2020, 05:24
Updated 06/03/2020, 05:27
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar surrenders to euro and yen as rate supremacy evaporates
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By Wayne Cole and Hideyuki Sano

SYDNEY/TOKYO, March 6 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed savage

losses against the yen and euro on Friday as a plunge in U.S.

yields to record lows wiped out the currency's single greatest

attraction for investors - higher interest rates.

Mounting fears over the fallout from the coronavirus has

driven a truly tectonic shift in expectations for U.S. rates as

markets wager the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates by 50

basis points for a second time this month. FEDWATCH

The resulting collapse in Treasury yields -- which fell

another 10 basis points in Asia -- has been the death of one of

the most popular carry trades globally - borrowing at negative

rates in the euro and yen to buy U.S. assets.

"Select USD pairs like EUR/USD are turning because of a

dramatic and decisive shift in U.S. rate expectations and

related spreads," said Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 FX

strategy at Deutsche Bank.

"The USD has lost the single most important source of its

over-valuation, a strong carry advantage," he added, warning

this could end a dollar uptrend that has lasted since mid-2018.

In particular, were the euro to close above the December

peak of $1.1239, it would breach a down channel from August 2018

and signal a clear break of the bull trend.

The single currency was almost there, being up at $1.1231

EUR= on Friday, having surged 0.9% overnight and a world away

from the February trough of $1.0775. It was already up 1.9% for

the week which would be the largest such gain since June 2017.

The U.S. Treasuries yield dropped 10 basis points to a

record low of 0.825% US10YT=RR , a drop of about 75 basis

points in just 11 sessions.

"U.S. bond yields have sunk to unbelievable levels," said

Kazushige Kaida, head of foreign exchange at State Street Bank

in Tokyo.

"The Fed's fast responses will be applauded in the long run.

But in the near term, even if it cuts rates, it won't stop the

virus. Markets are hoping for more measures such as tax cuts and

steps to support funding for cash-strapped firms," he said.

There were lots of other miserable milestones, with the

dollar sinking to a six-month low on the yen at 105.83 JPY= ,

having shed 1.2% overnight. The next bear targets were 105.72

and 104.46, lows from August and September last year.

It also sank to a two-year trough against the Swiss franc at

0.9443 francs CHF= , and was down 2% for the week so far.

The yen, euro and Swiss franc are backed by countries that

run strong external surpluses, while Japan has the added

advantage of being the world's largest creditor nation.

Those safe-haven attributes had grown in importance as U.S.

10-year yields US10YT=RR tumbled.

Fed fund futures 0#FF: were also pricing in about 90 basis

points of further easing by the year-end.

Yet the dollar was not down and out everywhere, as it still

held safe haven status compared to emerging market currencies

and those exposed to commodities.

That left it holding gains on the Canadian CAD= ,

Australian AUD= and New Zealand dollars NZD= , along with a

raft of currencies across Asia.

The Australian dollar lost 0.3% to fetch $0.6585 AUD=D4 ,

off this week's high of $0.6646 as its rebound from 11-year lows

of $0.64345 hit a week ago lost steam.

Similarly, the Canadian dollar traded at C$1.3412 per U.S.

dollar CAD=D4 , near a nine-month low of C$1.3465 set last

Friday.

(Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jacqueline Wong)

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