FOREX-Dollar trades near 9-week low post Fed, U.S. GDP eyed

* Fed's Powell quashes tapering talk, Biden touts spending
* Euro breaks to nine-week peak, CAD to 3-year high
* U.S. GDP set to be strong, trade and budget deficits a
drag
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON, April 29 (Reuters) - The dollar traded just off
nine-week lows on Thursday as a doggedly dovish outlook from the
U.S. Federal Reserve and bold spending plans from the White
House gave a green light for the global reflation trade.
President Joe Biden's push for another $1.8 trillion in
spending also risked expanding the U.S. budget and trade
deficits, a perennial Achilles heel for the dollar. The euro made the most of the opportunity to hit its highest
since late February at $1.2150 EUR=EBS , before steadying at
$1.2126.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did the dollar no favours by
quashing speculation about an early tapering of asset buying,
saying employment was still far short of target. "With front-end U.S. real rates already deeply negative and
set to fall further as U.S. CPI rises sharply this quarter, this
is likely to be a dollar negative, particularly when other parts
of the world (namely Europe) are set to see an economic rebound
in coming months," said Petr Krpata, chief EMEA FX and IR
strategist at ING.
Even the outperformance of the U.S. economy had a sting in
the tail for the dollar as it sucked in imports and drove the
trade deficit to record highs in March.
It could also temper any reaction to an upbeat U.S. GDP
report for the first quarter due later on Thursday, where market
forecasts are for annualised growth of a whopping 6.1%.
The closely-watched Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" estimate is that
GDP expanded by 7.9%, suggesting considerable upside risk.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar clambered off a
nine-week low at 90.606 =USD , and a long way from the rally
peak of 93.439 hit at the end of March.
"The USD has been recouping the ground lost initially after
the Fed's patient message on policy yesterday," said Jane Foley,
head of FX strategy at Rabobank.
"Bond yields are a little higher this morning and, after
Biden's message last night that the economy has turned a corner,
the market is expecting to see a very robust Q1 GDP report
today. This could be triggering some covering of short USD
positions."
The Fed's dovishness was in marked contrast to the Bank of
Canada which has already begun to taper its asset buying,
sending the dollar sliding to a three-year trough against the
loonie at C$1.2283 CAD= .
Another notable break lower came against the Norwegian
crown, where the dollar hit its lowest since October 2018 at
8.1460 crowns NOK= .
"Under these circumstances, cyclical FX should benefit. It
is no surprise that Norway's krone and Canada's dollar have been
the best performing G10 currencies over the past two days, as
apart from their high betas, they also stand out with more
policy normalisation-prone central banks," Krpata said.
The crown has been buoyed by rising oil prices as the global
economic recovery boosts demand for commodities, a trend that is
also benefiting the Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand dollars
NZD=D3 .
The dollar also shed much of the week's gain against the
yen, falling back to 108.86 JPY= from Wednesday's top of
109.07. A holiday in Japan kept it contained in Asian hours,
although the dollar reclaimed some ground and rose to 108.80 yen
in early London deals.

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World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
NOK, CAD lead reflation trade https://tmsnrt.rs/2SdYkI4
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