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FOREX-Euro waits for ECB as trade thaw spurs yuan rebound

Published 12/09/2019, 10:45
Updated 12/09/2019, 10:50
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro waits for ECB as trade thaw spurs yuan rebound
EUR/USD
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MIEM00000CUS
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* ECB decision due at 1145 GMT, press conference 1230 GMT

* Trump's delay to scheduled tariff hike boosts markets

* China's offshore yuan gains 0.5%, Aussie hits 6-wk high

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Writes through, adds quotes, details)

By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The euro hovered near $1.10 on

Thursday as traders prepared for the European Central Bank to

unveil an expected stimulus package, while China's yuan and

Australia's dollar rallied on further signs of a thaw in the

U.S.-China trade war.

Investors expect a rate cut at Thursday's meeting as the ECB

tries to prop up the region's ailing economy. The real

uncertainty is whether policymakers restart a quantitative

easing (QE) programme after some ECB members expressed doubt in

recent weeks about the need to relaunch asset purchases.

Euro/dollar overnight implied volatility has soared to its

highest since mid-2018 EURONO= , reflecting investor

uncertainty about the impact of the ECB announcement on the

single currency.

The ECB decision is scheduled for 1145 GMT, and president

Mario Draghi's press conference at 1230 GMT. The meeting is the

first in a series of major central bank events, with the Federal

Reserve and the Bank of Japan meeting next week.

SEB strategist Jussi Hiljanen said he expected the ECB to

cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points from the current level

of -0.4%, extend the forward guidance on rates by six months and

announce the restart of QE but with monthly purchases lower than

the market anticipated.

"Such a package of stimulus measures would be a

disappointment for the market, pushing long rates higher and

EUR/USD higher and steepening the curve," Hiljanen said.

The common currency EUR=EBS has shed 3.4% since June but

was 0.2% higher at $1.1028 on Thursday.

Stephen Gallo, European Head of FX Strategy at BMO Capital

Markets, said that if the ECB prepares the market for

significant rate cuts ahead, "that would be quite dovish, quite

bearish" for the euro.

However, he said the reaction would be contained as traders

were reluctant to take positions on the dollar before next

week's Fed meeting.

The dollar was slightly lower against a basket of currencies

at 98.528 .DXY .

RISK RALLY

After a difficult August in which concerns about a global

recession sparked a scramble into safer assets, markets have

rallied this month, encouraged by easing trade tensions and by

receding fears of a no-deal Brexit.

China on Wednesday exempted a basket of U.S. goods from its

tariffs, while U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet he

would delay a scheduled tariff hike by two weeks in October.

Export-driven currencies across Asia strengthened, as did

most emerging market currencies .MIEM00000CUS .

The Aussie hit a six-week high of $0.6887 AUD=D3 and the

offshore Chinese yuan rose 0.5% CNH=EBS to a three-week high

of 7.0737 per dollar. The Japanese yen, the go-to safe haven currency for fearful

investors, fell to a six-week low against the dollar. The yen

breached the 108 mark in Asian trade and was last at 107.86 yen

per dollar JPY=EBS . It had hit a seven-month high of 104.46

last month.

Sterling was little changed GBP=D3 EURGBP=D3 . The pound

rocketed to a six-week high against the dollar on Monday as

investors welcomed the British parliament's move to block a

no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31.

Despite the more positive mood in risk assets this week,

analysts expressed caution about its sustainability.

"The bigger picture is one of a very tense geopolitical

environment that is unlikely to be rectified quickly," BMO's

Gallo said.

China's offshore yuan vs dollar https://tmsnrt.rs/2AbkJJF

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(Editing by Hugh Lawson and Gareth Jones)

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