Asia FX moves little with focus on US-China trade, dollar steadies ahead of CPI
Investing.com -- Romania’s inflation rate increased from 5.5% to 5.7% in the latest data, coming in slightly above market expectations, while wage growth showed some moderation.
The inflation uptick suggests price pressures remain a significant concern in Romania, with the full impact of the government’s fiscal package still to be determined for the remainder of the year.
ING economists have revised their year-end inflation forecast substantially higher, from 6.0% to 7.5%, with projections indicating inflation could reach approximately 8% in September and October at its peak. The primary driver behind this upward revision is higher taxes, particularly an increased VAT rate.
Given these inflation developments, rate cuts from the National Bank of Romania appear highly unlikely this year, as the central bank will probably prefer to wait for inflation to stabilize before considering monetary easing.
The EUR/RON exchange rate has been difficult to interpret since the May sell-off, with both market participants and the central bank seemingly searching for an appropriate new level. Currently, the currency pair appears to be operating within a 5.020-5.080 range.
While previous expectations from analysts and consensus had pointed to EUR/RON trading closer to the lower bound of this range due to the central bank’s anti-inflation efforts, Romania’s substantial current account deficit naturally exerts downward pressure on the currency.
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