Gold prices steady ahead of Fed decision; weekly weakness noted
Investing.com -- Canadians are casting their ballots today in a volatile election cycle shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s contentious trade acts and threats to Canada’s sovereignty.
Months before Trump’s reelection victory, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, seemed poised to win the federal election in a landslide, polling over 20 points higher than the Liberal Party, then led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Canadians became disenfranchised with Trudeau and the Liberals amid a higher cost of living and escalating trade tensions with the U.S., triggering a political crisis after Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on December 16, 2024, citing a loss of confidence in Trudeau. Under heavy pressure from his caucus and the opposition, Trudeau announced on January 6, 2025, that he would resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader, and prorogued Parliament until March.
Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race on March 9, 2025, succeeding Trudeau as Prime Minister on March 14 and calling for a snap election just nine days after. Liberal popularity quickly rebounded as Trump intensified trade tensions and called for Canada to become the “51st state,” shifting the Canadian election’s focus from domestic issues to economic stability and national sovereignty.
Carney moved fast to distance himself from Trudeau, scrapping unpopular policies like the carbon tax and softening his stance on social issues. As a former head of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England during turbulent times, voters rallied around the idea that Carney’s experience could help Canada navigate the unpredictability of Trump’s policies.
The newly-elected PM has since run his campaign focused on Trump, consistently reiterating, “Trump’s strategy is to break us so America can own us.” He drew frequent comparisons between Trump and Poilievre, as Poilievre’s aggressive style and focus on domestic issues led the Conservatives to lose the dominant lead they once held.
The Liberals’ polling lead grew to 7%, but has since narrowed to around 4% as a few blunders by Carney dulled his initial momentum.
Ahead of polls closing, here’s a look back at what’s defined this election:
Carney
The former central banker and Liberal Party leader has campaigned under the slogan “Canada Strong,” based on four main pillars: unite, secure, protect, and build.
In “uniting” Canada, Carney pledged $20 billion to rural and digital infrastructure, Indigenous economic development, arts and culture, and the public broadcaster CBC/Radio-Canada, alongside funding major projects like regional transit and community health infrastructure.
Carney’s argument is that only through national unity can Canada become the independent world leader it aspires to be. He also accuses Poilievre of sowing division, arguing that cuts and negativity will only create more discord during challenging times.
The pillar aimed to “secure” Canada includes $18 billion in additional defense spending and over $4 billion in tariff-response funding directed at sectors harmed by U.S. trade policies. Another $1.7 billion would be invested in public safety, including the hiring and training of 1,000 new RCMP officers and expanded recruitment infrastructure.
By securing Canada, Carney hopes to shield workers from the economic fallout of U.S. tariffs, while exceeding NATO defense targets, requiring 2% of GDP to be spent on security.
Under the “protect” pillar, Carney pledged $3.5 billion to expand medical residency programs, reduce administrative burdens on health workers, fund a national youth mental health initiative, and launch a national IVF program. Earlier Liberal pledges also include maintaining and expanding dental care and pharmacare.
Through protecting Canada, Carney aims to solidify voter trust as healthcare and cost-of-living woes remain top of mind for Canadians.
Perhaps the most emphasized pillar is “building” Canada, through a $22 billion housing plan, $12.5 billion earmarked to cancel the capital gains inclusion hike, and another $12.5 billion to extend investment incentives for businesses. The Liberals estimate that over half of new proposed spending will be capital-oriented and leverage $500 billion in private investment over five years.
A major feature of Carney’s campaign has been his belief in transforming Canada into an economic powerhouse through private-sector-driven investment, reducing future reliance on the United States.
Some shortcomings in Carney’s campaign have been his French speaking, which he himself rated “6/10.” Despite being the weakest French speaker during the debate cycle, Carney managed to remain ahead in polls, even after a full debate held entirely in French.
Last week, Carney faced pressure over a lack of disclosure about a call with U.S. President Donald Trump, in which Trump reportedly reiterated his position on annexing Canada, though Carney insists Trump respects Canadian sovereignty.
Poilievre
In contrast, Pierre Poilievre has built his campaign on a call for “Change,” framing the vote as a referendum on ending what he terms “the lost Liberal decade.” He has attacked Carney as a continuation of Trudeau-era policies, arguing the Liberals remain out of touch on domestic economic issues.
Poilievre’s platform relies heavily on tax relief, spending cuts, and an aggressive housing policy, outlining a sharp fiscal departure from the Liberals.
The Conservative platform commits to reducing the federal deficit to $14.2 billion by 2029, through $15.4 billion in new revenue and $9.8 billion in spending cuts. Major areas for cuts include public sector consulting, foreign aid, and CBC English-language programming.
To enforce fiscal discipline, Poilievre proposed a “dollar-for-dollar” law, requiring every dollar of new government spending to be matched by greater or equal savings elsewhere.
At its core, his plan includes a 15% cut to the lowest personal income tax bracket, from 15% to 12.75%, which the party says will save an average worker $900 annually and dual-income families up to $1,800.
Poilievre’s housing plan proposes eliminating the GST on new homes under $1.3 million and rewarding municipalities that slash development charges, which he argues could reduce prices by up to $100,000 per home and stimulate homebuilding.
On energy, Poilievre pledged to repeal the federal carbon tax and deregulate Canada’s energy sector by repealing Bill C-69 and lifting production caps, a centerpiece of his broader plan to restore Canadian energy dominance.
The Conservative leader also proposed a “three strikes, you’re out” law to automatically deny bail, parole, or house arrest to offenders convicted of three violent crimes, blaming Liberal “catch-and-release” policies for the rise in violent crime.
The main criticism of Poilievre’s campaign has been his slowness to pivot from domestic issues to addressing Trump’s aggressive trade tactics and threats to Canadian sovereignty. He has maintained his approach, saying, “These problems predate Donald Trump and will outlast Donald Trump if we do not fix them.”
Conclusion
As Canadians head to the polls, the question remains whether voters are looking for steady leadership amid external threats or sweeping domestic change after a decade of Liberal governance. With tightening polls, the outcome will likely hinge on whether fears over Canada’s sovereignty outweigh frustrations over cost-of-living and governance, and whether Carney’s late surge can still overcome the Conservatives’ long-standing momentum.