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Investing.com -- The past eight months have seen U.S. equity markets cycle through three distinct phases, each driven by changing macroeconomic expectations and policy shifts, according to Sevens Report.
“Understanding what defined them and the strategies that outperformed will help us 1) Identify the next type of market and 2) Outperform,” the firm wrote.
The first phase, dubbed “Trumponomics Euphoria,” ran from November 2024 to January 2025. The firm explained that it was driven by expectations of deregulation, tax cuts, and pro-growth policies after the Republican sweep. This period saw the S&P 500 rise 5.4%.
“Cyclical sector outperformance” defined the rally, with consumer discretionary and financials outperforming tech and defensive names.
That optimism quickly reversed in the second phase, “Recession Paranoia,” from February to April.
As Sevens noted, “much-larger-than-expected tariff threats combined with erratic policy execution” fueled investor fears of stagflation.
The S&P 500 dropped 7.86% over the period, and defensive sectors like utilities and staples outperformed. “Anything consumer or cyclically oriented got hit hard,” analysts said.
The current market, which began in May, has been led by “Ignoring Macro (BCBA:BMAm) Headwinds, Focusing on the Positives.”
With trade tensions easing via delays and exemptions, investors have piled into sectors boasting “intrinsic growth,” particularly AI-related tech.
“The entire May-present rally has been carried by tech and tech-aligned sectors,” Sevens Report said, with names like NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) driving gains.
Looking ahead, the path will depend on clarity around trade and growth. If both improve, “Trumponomics” may return, according to Sevens.
If tariffs persist and growth slows, a return to “Recession Paranoia” is possible. If uncertainty dominates, “AI-related tech will continue to outperform,” the firm concluded.