ADP placed on Positive Catalyst Watch at JPMorgan into Q2 and H1 results

Published 15/07/2025, 10:34
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Investing.com -- JPMorgan has placed Aeroports de Paris (ADP) on Positive Catalyst Watch, pointing to underperformance year-to-date (YTD) and attractive valuation compared to peers in the European infrastructure sector.

The stock has declined 5% so far this year, versus a 15% gain for the infrastructure average, and now trades at 8.9x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA, below the 9.9x average for airport stocks.

Analysts believe Aeroports de Paris (EPA:ADP) could see upward revisions if it delivers in line with first-half (H1) expectations.

“We therefore see scope for the stock to catch up to peers over the rest of the year, notwithstanding political risk as France’s 2026 budget is finalised, and the needed regulatory visibility on the next ERA,” the report said.

Speaking more broadly, while Q2 traffic data is already available for many operators, limiting the scope for major earnings surprises, JPMorgan remains constructive on Vinci (EPA:SGEF) and Eiffage (EPA:FOUG).

Both are expected to report a “robust set of results” across their contracting and concessions businesses, despite ongoing political and regulatory uncertainties.

Ferrovial (BME:FER) is also expected to deliver solid operational performance. However, analysts flagged a potential drag from foreign exchange impacts on full-year 2025 consensus forecasts.

At Fraport (ETR:FRAG), investor focus will be on second-half traffic trends and the anticipated free cash flow inflection.

For Aena SME (BME:AENA), attention is likely to center on management’s commentary around a possible 6% tariff increase in 2026 and recent capital expenditure plans, JPMorgan said.

Meanwhile, Getlink SE (EPA:GETP) is projected to report a year-on-year decline in revenue and EBITDA, largely due to Eleclink. The market will be watching closely for updated guidance on H2 shuttle traffic, which has so far underwhelmed.

Overall, while near-term catalysts may be limited due to already released traffic data, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) highlights selected opportunities tied to valuation disconnects and the potential for earnings upgrades, particularly in the case of ADP.

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