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Investing.com -- Apple’s recent share price rally has baked in optimism around regulatory relief and future AI products, but Jefferies analysts cautioned that fourth-quarter results could fall short of expectations.
In a research note, Jefferies said Apple’s stock has risen 18% over the past three months, boosted by “tariff relief, US antitrust remedies, and AI-driven Siri service in ’26.”
However, the firm stressed that its “fundamental concerns are unchanged: saturated smartphone market, lack of tech innovations, and rising BOM costs for AI, but with uncertain demand.”
Jefferies was downbeat on Apple’s forthcoming flagship, writing: “We remain unexcited about iPhone 17 despite a positive US consumer survey.”
The firm warned that “pull-in demand in 3QFY25 could lead to a miss in 4QFY25,” with its revenue and EBIT estimates 5% and 7% below consensus.
The analysts highlighted three developments shaping sentiment. First, the U.S. District Court’s remedies decision in Google’s antitrust case means “GOOG could still pay AAPL for the latter to use its search engine, but it cannot be exclusive.”
Jefferies cautioned that Apple’s $20 billion annual revenue stream “may be less” under the new arrangement, with offsetting contributions from rivals such as Bing uncertain.
Second, Apple is set to launch an AI-driven Siri service in 2026, based on a customised version of Google’s Gemini large language model.
Jefferies noted this suggests Apple “is not re-inventing the wheel,” but questioned whether the company has enough app data to make its own smaller model effective.
Finally, while surveys show strong U.S. intent to upgrade to iPhone 17, Jefferies said Apple remains “unattractive” at “30x FY26E PE vs 15% CAGR.”