German construction sector still in recession, civil engineering only bright spot
Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley says the Baidu Inc’s valuation looks stretched after a recent rally, while the brokerage maintained its Equal-Weight rating and raising its price target.
Analysts lifted their discounted cash flow-based target to $140 and introduced a sum-of-the-parts valuation of $220, on AI cloud and proprietary AI chips.
The brokerage expects core advertising revenue to remain under pressure, with AI search results now accounting for 64% of ad impressions in July, where monetization is weaker than traditional search.
Analysts forecast core ad revenue to fall 15% in 2025, though growth in digital, human, and agent-driven ads could ease some pressure, contributing about 16% of ad revenue in the second quarter.
On the cloud side, Morgan Stanley estimates personal cloud makes up 30% of revenue, benefiting from AI transformation, while enterprise cloud subscription revenue continues to drive the bulk of growth.
Partnerships, including work with Apple on AI capabilities in China, and the deployment of the Kunlun AI chip, backed by a reported 1 billion yuan partnership with China Mobile, support expectations for AI cloud revenue to grow 32% in FY25.
Baidu’s robotaxi service Apollo Go has operated over 2.2 million driverless rides globally across 16 cities, with expansion into the Middle East, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Australia.
While Wuhan has reached unit-economics breakeven, analysts see limited near-term financial contribution.
Morgan Stanley raised core revenue and earnings forecasts for 2026-27 by 3-5% on stronger cloud growth and lowered its discount rates following management’s commitment to shareholder returns.
Its sum-of-the-parts valuation assigns $40 per share to core ads, $80 to cloud, $30 to autonomous driving, and $70 combined to net cash and investments.
The firm said the stock currently trades at 17 times 2026 earnings, in line with its valuation, supporting the equal-weight rating.