JFrog stock rises as Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Overweight rating after strong Q2
Investing.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) has downgraded earnings expectations for major European steelmakers, citing weaker demand, soft pricing, and rising cost pressures, while warning that any potential upside hinges on policy developments in the second half of the year.
In a note dated Monday, Barclays cut its FY25 EBITDA forecasts by 2-6% for ArcelorMittal (AS:MT), Aperam (AS:APAM) and Outokumpu (HE:OUT1V), placing them 5-11% below Bloomberg consensus.
The brokerage flagged that the Q2 earnings season has been challenging, with steel stocks underperforming the STOXX Europe 600 by an average of 4.3% on their respective results days due to disappointing forward guidance, despite earnings largely meeting expectations.
For ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), Barclays maintained an "equal weight" rating and €27 price target.
The brokerage lowered its 2025 EBITDA forecast by 6% to $6.5 billion, citing weaker performance in North America, where $40 million in outage costs and $140 million in tariff expenses weighed on results.
The outlook includes risks tied to tariff cost guidance and a pending supply contract expiry in early 2026. Adjusted EPS was revised down by 13% to $3.88.
Aperam’s rating remained "underweight" with a €25 price target. While Q2 EBITDA came in slightly ahead of consensus due to stronger shipments in Brazil and European cost savings, guidance for lower Q3 earnings fell short of market expectations.
Barclays cut Aperam’s 2025 EBITDA forecast by 6% to €413 million and adjusted EPS by 17% to €1.07.
The brokerage said the EU stainless sector’s outlook is highly dependent on stronger protectionist policy, with downside risks from pricing pressures and energy costs.
Outokumpu was also kept at "underweight" with a €3 price target. Despite a 9% beat on EBITDA in Q2, driven by raw material and metal derivative gains, Barclays flagged a weaker Q3 outlook, citing 5-15% volume declines, negative inventory effects and maintenance in Europe.
FY25 EBITDA was cut 2% to €220 million and adjusted EPS to negative €0.06. Additional risk stems from a new Finnish mining tax that could reduce annual earnings by up to €30 million.
Barclays warned that continued earnings downgrades are likely unless policy catalysts materialize.
These include a safeguard replacement mechanism in September, further detail on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), potential Chinese production cuts, and U.S. trade deals with Brazil, Mexico and Canada.
Until then, the brokerage maintains a neutral stance on the broader European metals and mining sector.