Barclays sees 25% upside in Mexican stocks amid tariff concerns

Published 10/02/2025, 16:10

Investing.com -- Barclays (LON:BARC) holds a bullish view on Mexican equities despite ongoing trade uncertainties, highlighting an average 25% upside potential in the stocks under its coverage.

The investment bank notes that while immediate risks from tariffs have been avoided, "the risk won’t lift until the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) is revised."

Mexican stocks continue to trade at a discount, with the companies in Barclays’ coverage trading at "an average of 6.1x and 5.5x 2025e and 2026e EV/EBITDA, respectively,” representing a 13% discount to the historical average for 2025.

Still, market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh potential trade disruptions.

Last week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum managed to avoid a tariff hit. Barclays strategists point out that Sheinbaum’s "cool head" approach helped avert a 25% tariff on Mexican exports to the US, a move that could have weighed on the country’s economic growth prospects.

However, strategists warn that "in a few weeks the negotiation drama will continue," keeping uncertainty high.

In terms of market impact, Barclays sees opportunities emerging from these challenges.

“Crises create opportunities," strategists led by Pablo Monsivais said, and this could be an opportune moment for Mexico to push forward with its economic agenda.

Sheinbaum’s "Plan Mexico," a $227 billion investment initiative, aims to boost Mexico’s global economic standing, increase investment to GDP, and create jobs in specialized manufacturing. The plan also includes tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and a focus on high-tech industries like semiconductors.

Despite near-term concerns, Barclays believes that a negative outlook is already priced in, reinforcing its view that select Mexican equities present compelling investment opportunities.

“A top-down view might prevent a re-rating in the near term until tariff risks diminish, but we think that with a bottom-up approach there are a few good investment opportunities,” strategists continued.

They favor "low beta names with USD revenues, and reasonable leverage, among non-cyclical sectors such as food and beverage, among others." Nearshoring plays remain attractive but may require more time to re-rate given the uncertain trade environment.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.