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Investing.com -- Bernstein has initiated coverage on Clariane (F:KORI) with an “outperform” rating and a price target of €6.80 per share, implying a 33% upside from its €5.13 closing price on July 14, in a note dated Wednesday.
The rating follows Clariane’s completion of a €1.5 billion balance sheet reinforcement plan and a return to credit markets after years of sector-wide financial and reputational stress.
The five-year period leading up to the coverage saw multiple shocks across the dependent care sector, including the COVID-19 pandemic, inflationary pressures, a real estate downturn driven by interest rate hikes, and fallout from the Orpea (EPA:EMEIS) scandal.
Clariane, which operates long-term care, specialty clinics, and assisted living services across six European countries, avoided equity-dilutive debt restructuring and stabilized its financial position through a combination of asset sales and capital raises.
It included €1 billion in asset disposals, including the sale of the Petit Fils network in June 2025 for €345 million, €329 million in equity raised in 2024, and the setting up of real estate debt partnerships.
By the end of 2025, Clariane’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is expected to fall to 2.7x, below its 3.0x target and down from 4.1x at the end of 2023.
This improved leverage position enabled a €400 million bond issuance on June 24, signaling restored access to credit.
Financial guidance reflects measured optimism. Revenues are forecast to grow from €5.28 billion in 2024 to €5.74 billion in 2026, representing a 4.2% CAGR.
EBITDA is expected to increase from €1.07 billion to €1.20 billion, with adjusted earnings per share moving from a loss of €0.12 in 2024 to €0.35 by 2026.
Clariane’s 2026e EV/EBITDA is projected at 8.05x, above the sector median of 7.4x but in line with its five-year average of 8.5x.
Despite demographic headwinds in the short term, the company reported a like-for-like revenue CAGR of 6.7% from 2020 to 2024 and targets 5% growth in 2025.
Bernstein models over 4% annual top-line growth through 2029, accelerating from 2030 as the over-85 age cohort expands.
The price target is derived from an equal-weighted blend of discounted cash flow and OpCo-PropCo sum-of-parts valuation, with the latter assigning value separately to operations and real estate holdings.
A blue-sky scenario with normalized capitalisation rates could imply a share value of up to €8.65.
France accounts for 49% of Clariane’s revenue, with solid occupancy rates exceeding 90% in all geographies and EBITDAR margins ranging from 18.9% to 25.2%.
CEO Sophie Boissard has led the company since 2016, providing management continuity through recent challenges.