BMO cuts Triple Flag rating after 60% rally but lifts target

Published 25/06/2025, 16:06
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- BMO Capital Markets downgraded Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp to Market Perform, saying the royalty company’s shares have risen faster than its near-term production outlook even as buoyant gold prices underpin long-term growth.

Triple Flag’s stock has climbed about 60% since January, outpacing other mid-cap royalty peers and leaving the shares trading around 1.6 times BMO’s net-asset-value estimate, the broker said.

Shares have gained ~60% in 2025 thus far, analysts at BMO wrote, noting the move pushes the valuation close to larger player Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) and above most comparables.

Analyst raised her price target to $35 from $33 after BMO increased its gold and silver forecasts, spot gold peaked above $3,400 an ounce this quarter and was last around $3,314, but said a step-down in streaming rates at the Cerro Lindo mine will likely drag the miner’s gold-equivalent output below 100,000 ounces in 2026.

Triple Flag guides 105,000-115,000 GEOs for 2025, which BMO believes is achievable, before growth resumes later in the decade with new royalties such as Orogen’s Arthur project.

The firm also sees capacity for further acquisitions, supported by forecast cash flow and an undrawn credit line, yet argues investors may wait for “a more attractive entry” while production dips.

The downgrade comes after Triple Flag’s U.S.–listed shares eased 2.6% to $24.30 in afternoon trading, valuing the Toronto-based company at roughly $5 billion.

BMO said its higher target price assumes improvement in long-term cash flows but reflects “more limited” upside near term as output softens and the market digests the stock’s sharp run-up.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.