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Investing.com -- BMO Capital Markets downgraded Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp to Market Perform, saying the royalty company’s shares have risen faster than its near-term production outlook even as buoyant gold prices underpin long-term growth.
Triple Flag’s stock has climbed about 60% since January, outpacing other mid-cap royalty peers and leaving the shares trading around 1.6 times BMO’s net-asset-value estimate, the broker said.
Shares have gained ~60% in 2025 thus far, analysts at BMO wrote, noting the move pushes the valuation close to larger player Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) and above most comparables.
Analyst raised her price target to $35 from $33 after BMO increased its gold and silver forecasts, spot gold peaked above $3,400 an ounce this quarter and was last around $3,314, but said a step-down in streaming rates at the Cerro Lindo mine will likely drag the miner’s gold-equivalent output below 100,000 ounces in 2026.
Triple Flag guides 105,000-115,000 GEOs for 2025, which BMO believes is achievable, before growth resumes later in the decade with new royalties such as Orogen’s Arthur project.
The firm also sees capacity for further acquisitions, supported by forecast cash flow and an undrawn credit line, yet argues investors may wait for “a more attractive entry” while production dips.
The downgrade comes after Triple Flag’s U.S.–listed shares eased 2.6% to $24.30 in afternoon trading, valuing the Toronto-based company at roughly $5 billion.
BMO said its higher target price assumes improvement in long-term cash flows but reflects “more limited” upside near term as output softens and the market digests the stock’s sharp run-up.