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Investing.com -- Shares of Boliden AB (STO:ST:BOL) climbed 8.5% following the company’s optimistic production outlook and expansion plans. Despite anticipating a seasonally challenging first quarter in 2025 for its Aitik mine’s throughput, Boliden expects a quarter-over-quarter increase.
The company forecasts a ramp-up in throughput later in the year, bolstered by improved truck availability and enhancements in its autonomous-hauling system. While 2025 is seen as a transitional year, Boliden did not provide specific throughput targets for 2026. However, the mine’s nameplate capacity is at 45 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), with a recent run rate of 40.4 mtpa in the fourth quarter of 2024.
In addition to the Aitik mine’s outlook, Boliden anticipates receiving a permit for throughput expansion at its Garpenberg mine, from 3.5 mtpa to 4.5 mtpa, within the year. This development is poised to be a significant growth driver, with more details expected to be revealed at the company’s Capital Markets Day in March, including potential small-scale investments to support the increased throughput rate.
Boliden also confirmed its commitment to an equity raise within the next six months, following shareholder approval to cancel dividends in favor of the raise. The company is still deciding between a direct issue and a rights issue, with expectations to keep the revolving credit facility (RCF) undrawn.
The impact of the recent Finnish strike on Boliden’s operations appears limited, with blue-collar workers back at work and negotiations ongoing. The company estimates a SEK100 million impact from the one-week industrial action early in the first quarter of 2025, but has not dismissed the possibility of further disruptions.
On the financial front, Boliden has recognized SEK2.4 billion in insurance gains through the profit and loss statement in the second quarter of 2024, related to the Ronnskar fire incident. Of this amount, SEK1 billion has been received, and the remaining SEK1.4 billion is expected throughout 2025. Additionally, a substantial portion of the SEK935 million gain booked in the fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to be received in 2025, with the rest to follow in 2026.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts have expressed concerns regarding Boliden’s future, particularly related to the Aitik mine’s 2026 grade and throughput expectations and the Neves Corvo asset’s performance. "We continue to see risks to (1) Aitik’s 2026 grade and throughput expectations, and (2) Neves Corvo given the asset’s mixed track record," they commented.
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