BTIG downgrades New Fortress Energy, says debt overhang trumps Brazil build-out

Published 26/06/2025, 19:08
© Reuters

Investing.com -- BTIG downgraded liquefied-natural-gas supplier New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) to Neutral from Buy, warning that concerns over a heavy debt load and limited near-term catalysts outweigh the promise of new terminals and power plants in Brazil.

The stock, which BTIG said has slumped about 65 % since first-quarter results in mid-May, was up 2.6% at $2.32 in afternoon trading, still down more than 90 % from its 2021 peak.

New Fortress’s next bond maturity – about $510 million due September 2026 – is trading in the 40-cent range, implying a yield near 90 %, BTIG noted.

Covenants on the company’s revolving credit and term-loan facilities restrict early buybacks of that debt, making another exchange involving new equity “a potential solution,” the analysts wrote.

Although cash constraints eased after a $1.06 billion sale of Jamaican assets in March, BTIG expects the balance sheet to remain an overhang until the company’s largest growth project, the 1.6-gigawatt PortoCem gas-to-power plant in Brazil’s northeast, begins operations in mid-2026.

Maintenance work in Puerto Rico and the disposal of Jamaican operations cut first-quarter terminal volumes by roughly a quarter. San Juan units 5 and 6 still generate about $150 million to $200 million in annual EBITDA, but a wider island-wide gas contract – potentially much larger – expires this week and its renewal is uncertain, the note said.

In Brazil, a smaller Barcarena complex is ramping toward a roughly $200 million EBITDA run-rate this year, yet the Santa Catarina terminal may not contribute meaningfully until 2027.

New Fortress trades near 17 times BTIG’s 2025 EBITDA estimate – a level the brokerage sees as “fairly valued” given few near-term growth drivers and lingering leverage worries.

BTIG still expects management to address liquidity, possibly by selling additional non-core assets or partnering on Pacific terminals and other infrastructure, but said those moves may take time to rebuild investor confidence.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.