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Investing.com - The odds that Nvidia will be allowed to send some of its cutting-edge artificial intelligence chips to China have "meaningfully increased," according to analysts at Raymond James.
In a note, the analysts including Ed Mills and Ellen Ehrnrooth argued that granting China access to Nvidia’s H200 chip -- but not the tech giant’s advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin processors -- would benefit the United States.
"We view this as a strategic win-win that sustains China’s dependency on U.S. AI infrastructure," they wrote, adding that it would also discourage the adoption of alternative, homegrown chips from Chinese groups like Huawei or DeepSeek and reinforce the Trump administration’s "export-led strategy and U.S. technology leadership."
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed on Wednesday ongoing discussions with the White House over the export of the H200 to China. The H200 -- unveiled more than two years ago -- is a more capable graphics processing unit than its H20, the Nvidia chip currently approved for sale in China.
Huang also clarified that Blackwell chips were not a part of these talks, which the Raymond James analysts interpreted as a sign administration officials are "pivoting toward exporting" the older-generation H200 to China rather the newer Blackwell or Rubin variants.
Such an arrangement would build off of U.S. deals with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia last month, where 70,000 AI chips, including versions of the Blackwell, were cleared for export to Abu Dhabi’s G42 and Saudi startup Humain, the Raymond James analysts said.
The deals demonstrated "the administration’s willingness to approve advanced AI infrastructure under appropriate export control guardrails," they added.
The U.S. first imposed export restrictions on China in 2022, citing a desire to prevent Beijing from using American equipment to enhance its military, although the position on the matter between the two countries has appeared to soften since a meeting between Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in October.