Core PCE price index takes center stage in Friday’s economic lineup

As traders approach another pivotal day for financial markets, a series of crucial economic data releases that could sway market dynamics are expected on Friday, August 29, 2025. The spotlight will be on the Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. This release, along with other important economic reports, will provide valuable insights into consumer spending, inflation trends, and overall economic health.

Major Economic Events to Watch

• 8:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (Aug): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3%. This key inflation measure excludes food and energy prices and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve.

Other Important Economic Events to Watch

• 8:30 AM ET - Personal Spending (Aug): Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.3%. Measures the change in inflation-adjusted consumer spending.

• 8:30 AM ET - PCE Price Index (Aug): Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.3%. A broader measure of inflation including all personal consumption expenditures.

• 8:30 AM ET - PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug): Forecast 2.6%, Previous 2.6%. Year-over-year change in the PCE Price Index.

• 8:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug): Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8%. Year-over-year change in the Core PCE Price Index.

• 8:30 AM ET - Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul): Previous -0.1%. Measures the change in the total value of inventories held by retailers, excluding automobiles.

• 8:30 AM ET - Goods Trade Balance (Jul): Forecast -$90.20B, Previous -$84.85B. The difference in value between imported and exported goods.

• 9:45 AM ET - Chicago PMI (Aug): Forecast 46.6, Previous 47.1. Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region.

• 10:00 AM ET - Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug): Forecast 58.6, Previous 61.7. Measures consumer sentiment regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power.

• 10:00 AM ET - Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug): Forecast 57.2, Previous 57.7. Focuses on consumer expectations for the economy.

• 11:30 AM ET - Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Forecast 2.2%, Previous 2.2%. A running estimate of real GDP growth for the current measured quarter.

• 1:00 PM ET - Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count: Previous 411. An important business barometer for the oil drilling industry.

• 1:00 PM ET - U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Previous 538. Total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S.

• 3:30 PM ET - CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Positions: Previous -171.5K. Provides insight into market sentiment for S&P 500 futures.

• 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Positions: Previous 33.8K. Indicates market sentiment for Nasdaq 100 futures.

• 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Gold Speculative Positions: Previous 212.6K. Shows speculative positions in gold futures.

• 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Positions: Previous 120.2K. Reflects speculative positions in crude oil futures.

Other Economic Events to Watch

• 8:30 AM ET - Personal Income (Aug): Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.3%. Measures the change in the total value of income received by consumers.

• 8:30 AM ET - Real Personal Consumption (Jul): Previous 0.1%. Personal consumption adjusted for inflation.

• 8:30 AM ET - Wholesale Inventories (Jul): Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1%. Measures the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers.

• 9:00 AM ET - Dallas Fed PCE (Jul): Previous 3.40%. A measure of core inflation using trimmed-mean calculations.

• 10:00 AM ET - Michigan Current Conditions (Aug): Forecast 60.9, Previous 68.0. Assesses consumers’ opinion of current economic conditions.

• 10:00 AM ET - Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug): Forecast 4.9%, Previous 4.9%. Measures consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year.

• 10:00 AM ET - Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug): Forecast 3.9%, Previous 3.4%. Measures consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years.

• 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Speculative Positions for various commodities including Aluminium, Copper, Silver, Natural Gas, Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans.

For further information and the latest updates, please refer to our Economic Calendar, here.

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