CSI 300 could rally further despite testing 10-year highs: Morgan Stanley

Published 20/08/2025, 15:46
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Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley is positive on China’s A-share rally, even as key benchmarks test decade-long highs, citing liquidity improvements, rotation from bonds and savings, and optimism over policy support.

“Better liquidity, rotation from bonds and savings, and hope for easing are major drivers in our view, as the onshore bond yield uptick suggests an improved investor outlook for the long-term macro,” Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts wrote.

The Shanghai Composite has gained 11% year-to-date and recently crossed 3,700 on Aug. 15, a level last seen in late 2015. The large-cap CSI 300 index is up 8% this year, climbing above 4,200. Morgan Stanley noted this level was briefly touched in September 2024, when stimulus hopes spurred a rally, and in January 2023 following China’s reopening, but momentum quickly faded on weaker growth.

Unlike those episodes, bond markets now appear more supportive. “It is worth noting that onshore long-term bond yields have been picking up since June,” Morgan Stanley said, pointing to China’s 10-year and 30-year yields rising 15 and 27 basis points to 1.78% and 2.11%, respectively. In prior rallies, bond yields showed “much more skepticism towards the macro outlook.”

The bank highlighted three drivers for the rally: improving liquidity, policy momentum, and sentiment shifts. Its proprietary Free Liquidity Indicator “turned positive for the first time in June 2025 since early 2024, and stayed positive in July.”

Meanwhile, China’s “anti-involution initiative has been building up momentum and stimulating market sentiment,” supporting expectations for price stabilization and stronger supply-demand dynamics.

Morgan Stanley continues to prefer onshore A-shares over offshore equities

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