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Investing.com -- Raymond James analysts defended CVS Health after the stock fell about 4.8% on Monday, saying the move reflected “misinterpretation” of industry commentary rather than any change in company fundamentals.
In a client note, Raymond James highlighted a recent call with CVS management, describing it as “constructive.”
The analysts pointed to several positives, including the pharmacy benefit management (PBM) business, which “remains on track, driven in part by the timing of guarantees (rebates, trade and performance) which cannot be accrued until achieved and are therefore back-end weighted.”
The firm also noted that its medical loss ratio assumption is conservative. “Our 95.2% 4Q MLR assumption (vs. Street at 95.4%) is likely conservative given current trends, with management flagging a ~700 bp swing from 1Q-4Q going into 4Q25 (implying 4Q MLR of ~94.3%),” Raymond James wrote.
On Medicaid, trends are “in line with expectations as geographic footprint/mix (e.g., no NY exposure, distinct LTSS mix) drives peer variance,” the analysts added.
In addition, the company’s guidance already factors in vaccine conservatism, with “~$200M of 1Q outperformance ‘in the bank.’”
Raymond James said the sell-off was triggered by confusion around Medicare Advantage comments from a competitor.
“To be clear: 1) the company has NOT received an update on its MA Star ratings/cut points, though we expect this to drop this week; and 2) the updated margin targets for MA (3-4% vs. 3-5%) merely reflect the current realities of Part D and the IRA. We would take 3% at this point,” the note said.
The analysts concluded that CVS fundamentals remain intact despite market volatility.