Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
Investing.com -- Shares of ERG Spa (BIT:ERG) fell by 5% today after the company released its updated guidance for 2025 and 2026, which includes lower EBITDA forecasts and capital expenditure than the market consensus.
The revised guidance reflects the impact of unfavorable wind conditions experienced in the first quarter, as the company had already observed weaker wind patterns in January and February.
ERG Spa’s guidance for the full year 2025 indicates an adjusted EBITDA range of €540 million to €600 million, which, while within the guided range, sits at the upper end of market expectations, with consensus estimates 5% above the midpoint.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts commented on the update, stating, "We see downward pressure on 2025/2026 consensus estimates with consensus EBITDA 5% above new 2026 guide (itself a 4% reduction at midpoint vs prior 2026 guide)."
For 2026, the company has revised its EBITDA guidance down to €600 million from a previous range of €600 million to €650 million, with current consensus 5% higher than the new forecast. This revision suggests that the company’s capacity expansion may align with previous projections, although this remains an assumption.
In terms of overall strategy, ERG Spa remains consistent with its previous plans but has made several adjustments. The company now expects a slightly lower installed capacity of 4.2GW by 2026 compared to the earlier target of 4.5GW.
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