GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks edge down as investors crave clarity on Fed stance

Published 22/08/2019, 12:03
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks edge down as investors crave clarity on Fed stance
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* MSCI world equity index down 0.1%

* July Fed minutes show divisions on rate cuts

* Yuan falls to lowest since March 2008

* German private sector struggles in August

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates prices throughout; adds investors comment)

By Tom Wilson

LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Share markets slipped on Thursday

as uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts left

investors on edge, with the release of minutes from the Federal

Reserve's last policy meeting exposing rifts over its recent

easing.

The Chinese yuan's slump to an 11-year low CNY=CFXS also

sapped their appetite for risk, with dealers saying state-owned

banks were seen selling dollars to support the yuan.

The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks

shares in 47 countries, edged down 0.1%. In Europe, the Euro

STOXX 600 .STOXX fell 0.2% in choppy trade, following a 0.6%

drop in MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside

Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS .

Wall Street futures gauges NQcv1 ESc1 were down between

0.2% and 0.3%.

Minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed deep splits among

policymakers over whether to cut interest rates last month,

though there was some unity in wanting to signal it was not on a

preset path to looser policy. The Fed cut rates by 0.25% in July. While a "couple" of Fed

members supported a deeper cut of half a percentage point, the

minutes showed, a larger number favoured no change at all.

That reluctance to loosen policy seems at odds with the

expectations for a cut of over 100 basis points by the end of

2020 that are already priced into markets.

Market players said that the minutes reflected a dissonance

between the predictions of easing - fuelled by geopolitical

concerns such as U.S.-China trade tensions and economic weakness

in major economies such as Germany - and the apparently solid

fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

"The update last night was a bit of a reality check - maybe

don't get ahead of yourself on what the Fed is going to do,"

said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets.

"If you forget about the geopolitical headlines, forget

about what the bond markets are doing, and look at the

underlying indicators of the U.S. ... people are in jobs,

earning decent money, and more importantly spending money."

Indeed, the apparent strength of the world's biggest economy

was on display on Wednesday, where Wall Street basked in

surprisingly upbeat results from retailers that sent Target (NYSE:TGT)

TGT.N surging 20% and Lowe's Cos LOW.N up 10%.

But beyond the United States, worries about the fragility of

the global economy were evident in data from Europe on Thursday.

Germany's private sector continued to struggle in August,

suggesting further that Europe's largest economy is heading for

a recession after its economy shrunk between April-June.

Euro zone business growth expectations also fell to their

weakest in more than six years on trade war fears, even as the

expansion picked up a touch in August. YUAN AT LOWEST SINCE 2008

The Fed minutes raised the stakes for Chairman Jerome

Powell's remarks on Friday at the Fed's annual policy retreat in

Jackson Hole, Wyoming - an event investors are waiting for with

bated breath.

"Jackson Hole is big," said Markus Schomer, chief economist

at PineBridge Investments. "The Powell speech will be hugely

important - there is a lot of pressure on him to deliver

something for everyone."

U.S. President Donald Trump has been urging larger rate

reductions, with proponents of looser policy pointing to the

need to lift inflation toward the Fed's target and thwart

fallout from global trade tensions.

And those trade worries played out again in currency

markets, where the fall in China's yuan to 7.0752 per dollar,

its lowest since March 2008, promoted a rush to perceived

safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen.

Against the dollar JPY= , the yen advanced by 0.2% to

106.44 yen, nearing last week's eight-month low of 105.05 yen.

Currency traders said that while the Chinese economy's

slowing growth meant pressure had been building on the renminbi

from long before, the new fall suggested Beijing was prepared to

use the currency as leverage as trade tensions simmer.

"This indicates that this is an instrument of the Chinese

government in the trade war. It is allowing for renminbi

weaknesses," said Thu Lan Nguyen, FX strategist with Commerzbank (DE:CBKG)

in Frankfurt.

"It is an indication that they are expecting the trade war

to continue, to last longer than they anticipated last year."

In commodities, oil prices dipped on worries about the

global economy and bigger-than-expected buildups in oil product

inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil

consumer.

Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose 0.6%, or 37 cents, to

$60.67, while U.S. crude CLc1 also gained 0.6% - 35 cents - to

$56.03 a barrel.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock

markets, please click on: LIVE/

Composite Euro area PMIs rise https://tmsnrt.rs/2Z9i5mz

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