* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
* Nikkei, Shanghai at 2-month tops as new tariffs avoided
* Treasury bonds off as market scales back bets on Fed
easing
* PMI factory surveys disappoint, from China to Japan
* Oil prices jump as OPEC looks set to extend supply cuts
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) - Stocks rallied and bonds
retreated in Asia on Monday as the United States and China
agreed to restart trade talks, leading investors to pare wagers
on aggressive policy easing by the major central banks.
The dollar firmed on the safe-haven yen as Treasury yields
rose and futures reined in bets for a half-point rate cut from
the U.S. Federal Reserve this month.
"The Trump-Xi G20 meeting looks to be a modest win for China
and a positive for risk assets short term, but well within the
range of expected outcomes," said Westpac economist Richard
Franulovich.
"Fed rate cut expectations are likely to see a sustained
trimming, though more so for their meeting on July 31 than over
the next year," he added. "A 50 basis point rate cut seems very
unlikely."
The United States and China agreed on Saturday to resume
trade negotiations after President Donald Trump offered
concessions to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping when the two
met at the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan.
These included no new tariffs and an easing of restrictions
on tech company Huawei HWT.UL in order to reduce tensions with
Beijing. China agreed to make unspecified new purchases of U.S.
farm products and return to the negotiating table. The initial reaction was one of relief that at least new
tariffs were avoided and Japan's Nikkei .N225 climbed 2.1% to
a two-month top. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS added 0.5%.
Chinese blue chips .CSI300 jumped 2.6% to their highest
since late April. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 rose
1.1% and EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 0.7%.
South Korea .KS11 lagged, in part as Japan tightened
restrictions on exports of high-tech materials in response to a
South Korean ruling on war-time forced labour. Treasury futures TYc1 slid 10 ticks as yields on 10-year
notes US10YT=RR edged up 4 basis points to 2.04%.
Fed funds 0#FF: dropped over 5 ticks as the market scaled
back the probability of a half-point rate cut this month to
around 15%, from nearer 50% a week ago. FEDWATCH
DAMAGE DONE
Yet, no deadline was set for a trade deal and much damage
has already been done, with two surveys of Chinese manufacturing
showing activity contracting. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) held at 49.4
in June, just missing forecasts, while the Caixin/Markit PMI
dropped to 49.4, the worst reading since January.
Surveys from Japan and South Korea showed similar slowdowns.
"Although a worst case outcome has been averted, the threat
of tariffs remains and it is unlikely the truce gives much
confidence to firms' investment and hiring decisions," said
Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.
"As such, it is likely that soft manufacturing conditions
will persist until if and when a fuller agreement is fleshed
out."
The reaction in currency markets was to strip some recent
gains from safe harbours like the yen and Swiss franc. The
dollar crept up 0.4% on the yen to 108.29 JPY= and 0.7% on the
franc to 0.9828 CHF= .
The dollar added 0.4% on a basket of currencies to 96.531
.DXY , while the euro eased to $1.1328 EUR= . The dollar went
the other way on the Chinese yuan, dipping 0.4% to 6.8403
CNY= .
The dollar's gains took some of the shine off gold, which
fell 1.5% to $1,388.28 per ounce XAU= .
Oil prices sprang higher on news OPEC and its allies look
set to extend supply cuts at least until the end of 2019 as Iraq
joined top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia in endorsing the
policy. O/R
Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose $1.66 to $66.40, while U.S.
crude CLc1 gained $1.43 to $59.90 a barrel.
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Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
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(Editing by Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam & Kim Coghill)