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Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs said advances in electric vertical takeoff and landing technology and policy support for US manufacturing are improving visibility on certification timelines, but the early market remains competitive and unlikely to produce a single dominant winner.
Companies with strong aftermarket potential, vertical integration and clearer paths to revenue are better positioned as the industry moves toward commercial rollout.
Goldman initiated Beta Technologies with a Buy rating, saying its step wise certification plan using a conventional takeoff aircraft brings forward revenue while keeping its EVTOL schedule intact.
The company’s mix of aircraft manufacturing and parts supply makes it the most attractive model in the sector, according to the note. BETA’s partnerships, including work with GE on a hybrid defense aircraft and sales of motors and chargers to competitors, should help it scale, and that the recent pullback offers an entry point.
GS initiated Joby with a Sell rating. Joby has the most flight hours and the lead in certification, but Goldman said its one stop strategy as manufacturer, supplier and operator faces regulatory hurdles and high capital needs.
It added that limits on aircraft weight and payload raise questions about the value of its certification lead and that the stock’s premium valuation is difficult to justify.
Goldman rated Archer Aviation at Neutral, citing its faster certification progress helped by outsourcing and its larger aircraft design, which could prove more capable. But the company’s limited vertical integration suggests less aftermarket potential and lower margins.
EVEX also received a Neutral rating. Goldman said Embraer’s ownership brings labor, facilities and industry experience, but has slowed development and limited flight hours. The company is expected to compete eventually, but is behind on certification.
The bank said EVTOL noise reduction, lower operating costs and stalled helicopter innovation support long term demand, including replacement and greenfield markets in cargo, ride sharing, medical and defense.
Certification remains the biggest gating factor. Goldman said the FAA will want multiple certified players and that first mover advantages are limited because manufacturing ramp ups take time even with large backlogs.
Given slow US certification, JOBY and Archer are prioritising early commercial operations in the Middle East beginning in 2026, targeting markets with faster approvals and less price sensitivity.
EVEX plans to certify first in Brazil, one of the world’s largest helicopter markets. BETA intends to certify in the US first, citing the stringency of FAA standards.