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Investing.com - Crown Holdings (NYSE:CCK) presents one of the most compelling risk-reward profiles among packaging stocks, according to analysts at Jefferies.
The analysts including John Dunigan and Fiona Shang highlight Crown, International Paper (NYSE:IP), and Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) as top picks with attractive valuations, noting that with the packaging group down by more than 10% year-to-date, market expectations appear well calibrated. For International Paper and Smurfit Westrock specifically, analysts expect both companies to face approximately 3% price/cost drag in 2026.
North American beverage can volumes have moderated after a strong first half of 2025, with carbonated soft drink growth decelerating and beer remaining under pressure, the analysts said. Despite these challenges, Crown Holdings is expected to deliver in-line third-quarter results and maintain its full-year guidance.
International Paper and Smurfit Westrock shares have been weighed down by softer pricing and demand in Europe, but the analysts believe their transformation efforts are progressing well. With fourth-quarter 2025 operating rates projected in the mid-to-high 90s and both stocks down 14-20% year-to-date, the risk-reward proposition appears particularly attractive.
For other packaging companies, the outlook varies, with Sealed Air (NYSE:SEE) potentially benefiting from activist investor involvement, while Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) faces softer volume trends that appear already priced into its stock, which has declined more than 30% year-to-date.
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