Jefferies downgrades Dowlais to Hold after merger approval

Published 24/07/2025, 10:02
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Jefferies has downgraded Dowlais plc (LON:DWL) from Buy to Hold while raising its price target to 75p from 70p, following affirmative votes for the company’s merger with American Axle (AXL) in recent weeks.

The new price target represents a 4% upside from Dowlais’s current share price of 72.10p, falling below Jefferies’ 15% threshold for a Buy rating on a 12-month view.

The merger transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to remaining conditions. The proposed merger with American Axle currently has an implied offer price of 75.1p.

Jefferies maintained its forecasts for Dowlais, projecting earnings per share of 10.68p for fiscal year 2025, 13.27p for 2026, and 15.00p for 2027.

This compares to consensus estimates of 11.80p for 2025 and 14.70p for 2026, with Jefferies’ projections coming in 9% and 10% below consensus for those years respectively.

The firm expects Dowlais to generate revenue of £4.62 billion in 2025, slightly below the consensus estimate of £4.65 billion. For 2026, Jefferies forecasts revenue of £4.71 billion.

Dividend yield is projected at 5.19% for 2025, 5.52% for 2026, and jumping significantly to 20.80% for 2027. The company’s net debt to EBITDA ratio is expected to improve from 1.9x in 2025 to 1.6x by 2027.

Dowlais is anticipated to return to positive free cash flow in 2026 with £70.1 million, improving further to £137.7 million in 2027, after a projected negative free cash flow of £22.1 million in 2025.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.