Jefferies turns bearish on On Holding, sees Nike leading in running shoe demand

Published 18/08/2025, 06:48
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Jefferies has shifted its outlook on On Holding (NYSE:ONON), downgrading the Swiss sportswear company to an “underperform” rating while pointing to Nike (NYSE:NKE) as the brand capturing stronger momentum in running shoe demand, in a note dated Monday.

In its latest industry report, Jefferies said 2025 is likely to mark the peak of On’s sales growth, with expansion in U.S. retail outlets slowing and retailer orders beginning to shift back to Nike in 2026. 

Analysts cited On’s high prices and narrow product range as limiting its total addressable market. 

The brokerage now projects sales and EBITDA estimates to fall about 5% and 10% below Wall Street consensus, with valuation multiples expected to compress.

Jefferies set a $40 price target for On, compared with a bear case target of $30.

The brokerage flagged Nike’s strength in the running category, noting that the Vomero Plus is outperforming On’s Cloudsurfer Max in both consumer interest and retail sell-through. 

Google Trends data showed materially higher search volume for Nike’s model, while sales at Dick’s Sporting Goods indicated the Vomero was selling out. 

This trend, Jefferies said, aligns with Nike’s recent commentary about a stronger order book heading into the holiday season.

Jefferies maintained a “buy” rating on Nike, setting a $115 price target based on its fiscal 2027 estimates. 

Analysts pointed to the brand’s new product momentum as a key factor in sustaining consumer demand in the competitive running footwear market.

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