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Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has downgraded Trainline (LON:TRNT) to "neutral" from "overweight," citing increased uncertainty surrounding UK rail regulations and heightened competitive pressures.
Shares of the travel company were down 8.6% at 07:43 ET (12:43 GMT).
The analysts argue that while Trainline has previously benefited from strong growth in online ticketing and expanding market share, the evolving regulatory landscape presents significant challenges to its long-term investment case.
A key factor in the downgrade is the UK government’s commitment to Great British Railways, which aims to unify train operators’ ticketing platforms into a single system.
This shift is expected to create a more consolidated and competitive market, potentially undermining Trainline’s dominance.
Analysts warn that regulatory uncertainty, particularly the ongoing consultation on the Rail Reform Bill, could limit Trainline’s valuation re-rating in the near term.
Despite the downgrade, J.P. Morgan acknowledges that Trainline is on track to finish its fiscal year strongly, with a solid outlook for FY26.
However, the brokerage has revised its mid-term estimates downward, anticipating increased competition and the gradual phasing out of Trainline’s white-label solutions, which currently contribute around £13 million in gross profit.
Additionally, the company may need to increase marketing expenditure to counter the growing presence of government-backed competition.
Due to these concerns, J.P. Morgan cut its Trainline price target to 400p from 500p, citing lower earnings expectations and valuation multiples, and noted that while Trainline’s brand and scale might offer some resilience against competition, the uncertain outcome makes the risk-reward less appealing.