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Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has upgraded Sika to “neutral” from “underweight” after a year of underperformance and a mid-year guidance cut, in a note dated Thursday.
Analysts said the company’s shares have fallen 13% year-to-date compared with flat performance for the broader Lightside sector.
Following the downgrade of its half-year outlook, when Sika reduced sales guidance from a 3-6% increase in local currencies to only a modest increase, the brokerage said earnings risks now appear more balanced heading into 2025.
The upgrade is tactical, with J.P. Morgan stressing that Sika remains one of its least preferred names in the sector.
The analysts cited several factors limiting the stock’s appeal. They noted that after a prolonged earnings downgrade cycle, Sika no longer shows the level of outperformance against Lightside peers that it once did.
They also pointed to limited potential for volume recovery compared with other companies and highlighted an increasingly competitive landscape as an ongoing challenge.
On valuation, Sika trades at a discount to its long-term average, 14x forward EV/EBITDA versus a historical 15.8x, but still carries a premium to the Lightside sector at 10.7x.
J.P. Morgan argued that this premium does not fully reflect the company’s weaker relative positioning.
Even with the “neutral” rating, the analysts maintained a price target of CHF186, unchanged from before the upgrade.
The brokerage added that while the change in stance reflects current market dynamics, Sika’s shares remain low on its pecking order compared with other stocks in its European building materials coverage.
Sika is scheduled to host its Capital Markets Day on October 7, though J.P. Morgan said it does not expect new financial targets or guidance at the event.