Two National Guard members shot near White House
Investing.com -- Kingspan (LON:0KGP) on Friday was placed on J.P. Morgan’s positive catalyst watch as the bank said the near-term setup for the Irish insulation and building-materials group had turned more favorable.
Analysts, led by Elodie Rall, maintained a “neutral” rating but said several upcoming events could support the company’s share performance despite recent pressure on earnings expectations.
In the note, the analysts said, “We place Kingspan on positive catalyst watch given some upcoming catalysts that could lead to near term share price
outperformance.”
One of the central drivers is the company’s plan to pursue a partial IPO of its ADVNSYS division around Q1 2026.
J.P. Morgan said the listing should help clarify value for the division, citing its own sum-of-the-parts valuation pointing to a fair value of €80 a share, with what it described as a “blue-sky scenario” of €90.
The brokerage said the shares have been weighed down by “negative earnings momentum” in recent months, with consensus estimates for 2026 EPS falling 5% over six months.
Even so, J.P. Morgan noted that Kingspan has reaffirmed its FY25 guidance and set out an initial view for FY26, reducing near-term uncertainty.
The company expects FY26 trading profit to rise by €100 million, including €30 million attributable to scope expansion.
The analysts said this guidance limits the downside risk into Q1, particularly after the company’s repeated indications of steady order trends.
Kingspan has previously said that order intake in the U.S. is rising, with its order book at record levels. While construction customers are delaying the timing of product deliveries, the bank said Kingspan emphasized that cancellations are not an issue.
J.P. Morgan added that the non-residential market in North America could recover faster than the residential market, offering a possible tailwind for the group, which has been expanding its presence in the region.
The research team also referenced its newly published First Principles study on data-center construction, noting Kingspan’s meaningful exposure to the sector relative to other companies under coverage.
The analysts wrote that their analysis suggests “datacentres will drive an up to 13% uplift in EBITDA,” based on what they estimate is implied in Kingspan’s guidance. The brokerage said such exposure could provide an additional layer of support as data-center development continues to increase across major markets.
Despite the shift to a more constructive near-term stance, J.P. Morgan said it is retaining its “neutral” rating because of broader uncertainties around Kingspan’s strategic direction.
The analysts noted outstanding questions about the group’s push into product diversification, including its expansion into the North American roofing market. They also highlighted ongoing fire-safety considerations, referencing issues that emerged after the Grenfell tragedy.