J.P. Morgan upgrades InPost to "overweight,” sees 15% upside potential

Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has upgraded InPost (AS:INPST) to "overweight" from "neutral," citing the parcel-locker operator’s unit cost advantage, expanding European footprint, and favorable valuation. 

The analysts revised the price target to €16 for December 2026, down from €18.70, implying a 15% upside from the current price of €13.86 (as of June 25).

Despite slower expected growth, the bank sees a compelling entry point. InPost’s delivery via automated parcel machines (APMs) continues to offer more than 50% unit cost savings over traditional to-door delivery. 

The analysts view this model as comparable to low-cost carriers in aviation, with InPost positioned to take profitable share from higher-cost incumbents.

InPost’s EBIT is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 16% between 2025 and 2028, with ROIC rising from 13.4% in 2025 to 16% in 2028. 

Adjusted EBITDA is estimated at PLN 4.2 billion in 2025, increasing to PLN 5.8 billion by 2027. 

Adjusted EBIT is projected to reach PLN 2.1 billion in 2025 and PLN 2.9 billion in 2027. Margins are expected to stabilize, with EBITDA margin rising from 28.2% in 2025 to 30.2% in 2027.

The analysts reduced EBIT estimates by 14% on average for 2025–2028, citing higher capex, recent acquisitions, and segment reporting changes. 

Group EBITDA estimates remain largely unchanged. A higher 16.5x EV/EBIT multiple, up from 15x, is now applied to 2026 EBIT projections of PLN 2.5 billion, despite slightly slower forward growth.

In the U.K., recent acquisitions of Yodel and Menzies boost InPost’s scale and give it a 7–8% share of the parcel market. 

The U.K. strategy is focused on shifting from to-door to APM deliveries, with the network expected to cover 75% of the population by end-2025. InPost aims for 28% EBITDA margin at 12.5% market share by 2030.

In Poland, which contributes 48% of revenue and 76% of EBITDA, e-commerce growth is slowing. 

InPost is expected to share cost savings with Allegro (WA:ALEP), its key partner, through lower pricing. 

The company forecasts a gradual decline in EBITDA margins in Poland to just over 40% by 2030, down from 48% in 1Q25. 

Allegro parcels accounted for 40% of InPost’s volume in 2024, but that is expected to fall to 20% over the next decade.