Mizuho raises targets for Tesla, automakers on brighter 2026 outlook

Published 23/09/2025, 11:08
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Mizuho has raised price targets for Tesla and several automakers, citing a brighter outlook for 2026 as tariff impacts appear less severe than previously feared and vehicle production volumes trend higher.

The bank lifted Tesla’s target to $450 from $375, maintaining an Outperform rating. Analysts trimmed their 2026 delivery forecast slightly to 1.91 million units from 1.95 million, still above consensus, and flagged upcoming catalysts, including a cheaper Model 2 and potential robotaxi launches.

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho Securities, said in a Monday note.

He added that Elon Musk’s updated pay package and $1 billion stock purchase could align incentives with long-term initiatives in autonomous driving and humanoid robots.

General Motors was also raised to $67 from $58 with an Outperform rating. Mizuho lifted its 2026 EPS estimate to $9.74 from $9.36, above consensus, noting that a slower EV rollout could be a near-term positive as GM’s internal combustion engine portfolio remains highly profitable.

That, Rakesh said, improves free cash flow and strengthens the company’s position for future EV investments.

Autoliv’s target moved up to $140 from $130, with Rakesh pointing to lower-than-expected tariff impacts and “increasing safety standards providing long-term (LT) tailwinds, especially in China as it looks to match/exceed U.S. and EU regulations.”

Rivian’s price objective was lifted to $14 from $12, with Neutral rating retained, supported by optimism around the groundbreaking of its Georgia facility ahead of 2026 construction and a 2027 start of production.

Rakesh also raised the target price on Nio shares to $7 from $6 after August sales of 31,000 units rose 49% month-on-month and 55% year-on-year, driven by its Firefly and Onvo brands alongside its premium lineup.

Mizuho’s revisions followed S&P Global’s move to increase its 2025–27 light vehicle production estimates, citing stronger U.S. demand and resilient Chinese EV sales.

Rakesh said average transaction price (ATP) increases from tariffs may be limited to about $1,200 per vehicle, versus prior forecasts of $3,400–3,600, as automakers offset costs by offering cheaper trims, spreading price increases globally, and avoiding hefty regulatory fines.

U.S. EV sales were up 18% year-on-year in August at 146,000 units, boosted by customers seeking to benefit before IRA credits expire in late September.

Tesla delivered around 55,000 units, while GM posted a record 21,000 EVs for the month.

In China, new energy vehicle deliveries hit 1.1 million in August, flat year-on-year, with Tesla down 4% and BYD continuing to lead the market.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.